Friday, July 6, 2007

Introducing a New Toy

I've started putting together individual projection pages for all new and returning players. I'm going to create a separate spreadsheet document for each team's roster, and each player will have his own sheet within the workbook. Teams are just starting to post rosters on their official sites, so I'll try and keep up with them as they're published. First up: Virginia.

I've included both per-40 and per-game projections for all players, but the playing time projections are based entirely on historical precedents. I'm not about to try and figure out who's going to get minutes and who's going to get splinters at this early stage. As a result, for example, you'll find that adding up all of the 50th percentile projections for the Virginia team would give you about 60 extra minutes.

Similarity scores are based on a comparison of players' per-40 numbers across 16 statistical categories. A score of 1000 would indicate an identical season; anything over 900 is a strong similarity, and anything over 920 or so is very strong. Career similarities are based on the same scale, but, obviously, for the players' entire careers through that class.

Freshman projections are based on what similarly-sized and similarly-touted players have done in their first years.

Boston College is up next, probably sometime over the weekend.

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