Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Preseason All-Conference Teams

I hate preseason lists and polls. They don't mean anything to anyone other than the folks that put the list together. They're generally hastily assembled with a minimum of research and wind up correlating much more strongly with teams' or players' Q ratings than what actually transpires in the subsequent season. The only useful purpose they serve is to provide a little bit of content before the games start.

With that said, you may have noticed that there's a Preseason All-ACC list in the sidebar. What gives? Well, I needed some fresh content to fill space until the actual season starts. Plus, I've got all these fancy player projections that I've been working on, and I want to put them to some kind of use. So they're meaningless and useless, but at least they're not completely subjective.

With all of the individual player projections done, over the weekend I put them into context by making some guesses at actual playing time. Those numbers will all be published in the individual team previews. The playing time-adjusted Points, Assists, Rebounds, Turnovers, Blocks, and Steals (or PARTOBS from now on, because I love acronyms as much as I hate typing) were plugged into a formula (P+A+R-TO+((B+S)/2), in case you were curious) and then ranked.

The end result doesn't line up very well with PAPER--defense, to the extent that it's even included in the PARTOBS calculation, is undercounted, and there's no adjustment for pace or teammates--but it includes all of the traditionally important counting stats. I haven't gone back and checked prior seasons (note to self: do this), but I'd guessthat it would track pretty well with the media's All-ACC teams.

For those of you who are either reading this in a feed aggregator, or even those who may be unwilling or unable to look at the right side of the screen, here's the full list:

First Team
Tyler Hansbrough, UNC (POY)
Sean Singletary, UVA
James Gist, MARY
Tyrese Rice, BC
Lewis Clinch, GT

Second Team
Brandon Costner, NCSU
Deron Washington, VPI
Trevor Booker, CLEM
Ty Lawson, UNC
James Mays, CLEM

Third Team
DeMarcus Nelson, DUKE
K.C. Rivers, CLEM
Ben McCauley, NCSU
Brian Asbury, MIA
Joe Trapani, BC

J.J. Hickson, NCSU (FOY)
Kyle Singler, DUKE
Taylor King, DUKE
Gani Lawal, GT
Hank Thorns, VPI

No comments: