Friday, November 9, 2007

7. Maryland

2007 ACC Record: 10-6, t-3rd place
Projected 2008 Record: 7-9 (1025 PARTOBS, .364 Raw W%*)

Maryland has the most favorable schedule in the conference in 2008. The Terps will play the top four teams in the league only four times, and three of those games will be on the road. As a result, they are favorites in seven of their eight home games, more than any other team in the league. It's not hard to see a scenario in which the Terps combine a couple good bounces on the road with their schedule--which is worth over a win per season on average--to exceed expectations.

Projected Player Contributions:

I'm really torn over how I should feel about Greivis Vasquez. From an analytical perspective, he's my absolute favorite kind of player: a tall combo guard with vision and a strong shooting touch that can play either guard position, probably wouldn't hurt you if he slotted in at small forward for stretches, and creates a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses no matter what position he plays. On the other hand, as a fan he's exactly the kind of player I can't stand. He complains every time a call doesn't go his way--I doubt he thinks he's ever committed a foul in his life--and he's emotional to the point of showing up his competition. Hopefully he'll follow the Julius Hodge path and mellow as he matures.

*The PARTOBS number next to the team's projected record uses the projected Points, Assists, Rebounds, Turnovers, Blocks, and Steals to arrive at a number that correlates pretty strongly with a team's overall and conference record. The order of the PARTOBS number correlates even more strongly with the order of finish. The predicted order of finish and number of conference wins will be based on that number.

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