Saturday, January 26, 2008

Game Preview: NCSU at FSU

I've written a little program that will simulate games possession-by-possession using the Monte Carlo method. The input data are teams' rate stats (which have been adjusted for level of competition) across all statistical categories, as well as an adjustment within each category for home court advantage.

The teams' winning percentage and scoring average, standard deviation, maximum, and minimum are based on the trials run. The "theoretical" lines are derived directly from the probabilities associated with events. The following table is based entirely on the probabilistic model as well:

The only real advantage for the Wolfpack in today's game would appear to be that they do a better job of getting to the line than the Seminoles. Most of the advantage in FTM/FGA, though, is due to the fact that Florida State figures to have so many extra shots--thanks to more offensive boards and fewer turnovers--that they still figure to make a similar number from the charity stripe.

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