Thursday, November 18, 2010

Programming Note

Even though the season is underway, there's still not enough data just yet to start making reasonable predictions. We're just 320 games into the season, and 13 teams have yet to even play a game against another Division I opponent. All it takes is one look at the current TAPE Rankings to see how wonky things are. It'll be a couple weeks yet until everything is connected and means anything at all; the TAPE rankings today have only about a .5 correlation with the end-of-season rankings, but by next weekend, once the Thanksgiving tournaments wrap up, that correlation jumps up to about .9.

So the plan right now is to start putting up the daily games posts again after the Thanksgiving holiday, just in time for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge games. After the Challenge, there should be enough games between BCS league teams in the system for the individual player ratings to go live by the first weekend in December (I've made some solid improvements to those ratings, which I'll detail in a post once the ratings go live). Finally, the league-only player ratings will obviously wait for the conference seasons to heat up in January. In the meantime, the TAPE rankings will continue to update daily (just don't take them seriously until after Thanksgiving).

No comments: