Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Predictions Audit

I've added a new link to a spreadsheet which contains all of the TAPE predictions from the current season, from December 6 through last night's games, along with the results of each game. In short, TAPE has been about as accurate as I could possibly hope for. 
  • TAPE picked the correct winning team 73.1% of the time, matching its confidence level almost exactly. Over the course of 3,237 predictions, TAPE expected to be correct 2,365 times; in actuality, it has been correct 2,366 times.
  • The actual results have tracked closely with the confidence level, as summarized in the second sheet of the audit workbook.
  • The average error for possessions per game has been 4.15 (3.75 when overtime games are excluded.
  • The average error for predicted team points per game has been 8.30 (8.04 for games decided in regulation).
  • The average error for the predicted margin has been 8.70 (8.82 for non-overtime games).
I'll try and update the audit spreadsheet once a week or so, and then revisit the results, probably in a good bit more depth, after the season is over with.

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