| Time | Visitors | Exp. Score | Home | Poss. | Conf. | ||
| 7:00 Tue | Coastal Carolina | 58.9 | at | 68.8 | Alabama | 63.4 | 79% |
| Vermont | 62.1 | at | 69.3 | Cleveland St. | 64.1 | 72% | |
| Dayton | 67.3 | at | 73.2 | Charleston | 65.2 | 67.4% | |
| 7:30 Tue | Harvard | 63.5 | at | 67 | Oklahoma St. | 61.4 | 61.3% |
| 8:00 Tue | Murray St. | 59 | at | 67.9 | Missouri St. | 58 | 77.3% |
| 9:00 Tue | Boston Coll. | 75 | at | 68 | McNeese St. | 61.4 | 70.5% |
| Fairfield | 60.2 | at | 69.3 | Colorado St. | 64.7 | 77.2% | |
| UTEP | 64.1 | at | 71.9 | New Mexico | 65.5 | 72.9% | |
| 11:00 Tue | Kent St. | 65.1 | at | 79.7 | St. Mary's | 64.8 | 87.2% |
| 7:00 Wed | Nebraska | 61.4 | at | 63.9 | Wichita St. | 60.9 | 58.3% |
| 7:30 Wed | Florida Atlantic | 58.8 | at | 72 | Miami (FL) | 60.6 | 85.9% |
| 8:00 Wed | Bethune-Cookman | 51.7 | at | 72.9 | Virginia Tech | 58.2 | 96.7% |
| Wis. Milwaukee | 64 | at | 75.7 | Northwestern | 62.5 | 82% | |
| 9:00 Wed | Mississippi | 71.7 | at | 75.6 | California | 66.9 | 61.8% |
| Texas Southern | 59.3 | at | 82.9 | Colorado | 65.1 | 96.8% | |
| 10:00 Wed | Long Beach St. | 65.7 | at | 78.9 | Washington St. | 69 | 84.3% |
This slate of games looks more like something you'd see on a random Wednesday night in December than the first round of a postseason tournament. These aren't intriguing matchups. They're guarantee games. It's a shame that good teams like Maryland, Duquesne, Southern Miss, Minnesota and Baylor are either sitting at home or playing in a joke of a tournament like the CBI, when they could be matching up strongly against the teams in the right-hand column.
If the NIT is to exist at all, it should be as a reward for those teams who had good seasons but fell short of reaching the Big Dance, not as a feel-good consolation prize for teams who weren't good enough to win their third-rate conference tournaments.
In any case, if anyone cares to see the table of probabilities for each team's chances of advancing to each round, it's below the jump.
In any case, if anyone cares to see the table of probabilities for each team's chances of advancing to each round, it's below the jump.
| TEAM | R16 | R8 | FINAL 4 | FINALS | CHAMP |
| St. Mary's | 87.2% | 65.1% | 38.2% | 23.4% | 13.7% |
| Washington St. | 84.3% | 63.0% | 37.5% | 23.0% | 13.0% |
| Colorado | 96.8% | 66.8% | 37.7% | 21.5% | 12.0% |
| Virginia Tech | 96.7% | 65.2% | 36.5% | 21.3% | 11.8% |
| Miami (FL) | 85.9% | 57.5% | 33.0% | 14.1% | 6.6% |
| Alabama | 79.0% | 46.6% | 25.7% | 11.7% | 5.8% |
| Boston Coll. | 85.3% | 53.3% | 29.7% | 13.7% | 5.8% |
| New Mexico | 72.9% | 38.9% | 20.1% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Cleveland St. | 72.0% | 48.0% | 28.3% | 12.3% | 4.9% |
| Northwestern | 82.0% | 39.2% | 18.8% | 8.7% | 3.8% |
| Missouri St. | 77.3% | 33.1% | 14.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
| Colorado St. | 77.2% | 26.9% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Wichita St. | 58.3% | 20.0% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| California | 61.8% | 20.4% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Charleston | 46.3% | 21.9% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Oklahoma St. | 61.3% | 20.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Nebraska | 41.7% | 14.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Mississippi | 38.2% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Dayton | 53.7% | 20.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Harvard | 38.7% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| UTEP | 27.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Vermont | 28.0% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Fairfield | 22.8% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Murray St. | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Long Beach St. | 15.7% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 21.0% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Wis. Milwaukee | 18.0% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Kent St. | 12.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.04% |
| Florida Atlantic | 14.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.02% |
| McNeese St. | 14.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.01% |
| Texas Southern | 3.2% | 0.2% | 0.01% | 0.001% | 0.0001% |
| Bethune-Cookman | 3.3% | 0.1% | 0.01% | 0.0004% | 0.00003% |
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