Monday, March 14, 2011

NIT Preview: First Round Games

TimeVisitorsExp. ScoreHomePoss.Conf.
7:00 TueCoastal Carolina58.9at68.8Alabama63.479%
Vermont62.1at69.3Cleveland St.64.172%
Dayton67.3at73.2Charleston65.267.4%
7:30 TueHarvard63.5at67Oklahoma St.61.461.3%
8:00 TueMurray St.59at67.9Missouri St.5877.3%
9:00 TueBoston Coll.75at68McNeese St.61.470.5%
Fairfield60.2at69.3Colorado St.64.777.2%
UTEP64.1at71.9New Mexico65.572.9%
11:00 TueKent St.65.1at79.7St. Mary's64.887.2%
7:00 WedNebraska61.4at63.9Wichita St.60.958.3%
7:30 WedFlorida Atlantic58.8at72Miami (FL)60.685.9%
8:00 WedBethune-Cookman51.7at72.9Virginia Tech58.296.7%
Wis. Milwaukee64at75.7Northwestern62.582%
9:00 WedMississippi71.7at75.6California66.961.8%

Texas Southern59.3at82.9Colorado65.196.8%
10:00 WedLong Beach St.65.7at78.9Washington St.6984.3%

This slate of games looks more like something you'd see on a random Wednesday night in December than the first round of a postseason tournament. These aren't intriguing matchups. They're guarantee games. It's a shame that good teams like Maryland, Duquesne, Southern Miss, Minnesota and Baylor are either sitting at home or playing in a joke of a tournament like the CBI, when they could be matching up strongly against the teams in the right-hand column.

If the NIT is to exist at all, it should be as a reward for those teams who had good seasons but fell short of reaching the Big Dance, not as a feel-good consolation prize for teams who weren't good enough to win their third-rate conference tournaments.

In any case, if anyone cares to see the table of probabilities for each team's chances of advancing to each round, it's below the jump.


TEAM R16 R8 FINAL 4 FINALS CHAMP
St. Mary's 87.2% 65.1% 38.2% 23.4% 13.7%
Washington St. 84.3% 63.0% 37.5% 23.0% 13.0%
Colorado 96.8% 66.8% 37.7% 21.5% 12.0%
Virginia Tech 96.7% 65.2% 36.5% 21.3% 11.8%
Miami (FL) 85.9% 57.5% 33.0% 14.1% 6.6%
Alabama 79.0% 46.6% 25.7% 11.7% 5.8%
Boston Coll. 85.3% 53.3% 29.7% 13.7% 5.8%
New Mexico 72.9% 38.9% 20.1% 10.2% 5.7%
Cleveland St. 72.0% 48.0% 28.3% 12.3% 4.9%
Northwestern 82.0% 39.2% 18.8% 8.7% 3.8%
Missouri St. 77.3% 33.1% 14.9% 5.8% 2.5%
Colorado St. 77.2% 26.9% 10.2% 4.9% 2.2%
Wichita St. 58.3% 20.0% 7.9% 4.1% 2.0%
California 61.8% 20.4% 7.9% 3.9% 1.9%
Charleston 46.3% 21.9% 9.9% 4.1% 1.6%
Oklahoma St. 61.3% 20.7% 7.7% 3.7% 1.6%
Nebraska 41.7% 14.7% 5.5% 2.8% 1.4%
Mississippi 38.2% 12.6% 4.4% 2.1% 1.0%
Dayton 53.7% 20.5% 8.6% 3.0% 0.9%
Harvard 38.7% 12.0% 3.8% 1.7% 0.7%
UTEP 27.1% 10.3% 3.3% 1.2% 0.5%
Vermont 28.0% 9.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
Fairfield 22.8% 4.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Murray St. 22.7% 6.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Long Beach St. 15.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Coastal Carolina 21.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Wis. Milwaukee 18.0% 4.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Kent St. 12.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.04%
Florida Atlantic 14.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.02%
McNeese St. 14.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.01%
Texas Southern 3.2% 0.2% 0.01% 0.001% 0.0001%
Bethune-Cookman 3.3% 0.1% 0.01% 0.0004% 0.00003%

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