Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Today's Games: 11/16/2011

TimeVisitorsExp. ScoreHomePoss.Conf.
7:00 PMLong Island64.2at77Penn St.69.880.2%
Jackson St.52.2at68.1Wright St.63.788.5%
Stetson55.4at75.8Florida St.71.991.7%
LA Monroe51at77Tennessee62.696%
Princeton59.9at77.9N.C. State66.888.2%
South Dakota St.64.7at74.8Georgia66.675.3%
Mount St. Mary's55.4at68.2Hartford68.183.2%
Jacksonville55.9at61.4Savannah St.66.267.3%
Howard50at64.7Old Dominion61.888%
St. Francis (NY)67.5at72.9Lafayette69.164.4%
Georgia Southern64.3at84.2Wake Forest7488.9%
7:05 PMClemson66.8at60Citadel65.169.7%
7:30 PMFlorida Atlantic59.8at59.6American59.250.4%
Sam Houston St.58.1at78.8Notre Dame67.191.3%
N.C. Central59.1at70.4Wagner68.679.4%
8:00 PMWis. Green Bay64.2at81.3North Dakota St.70.286.1%
Utah70.1at75.6Boise St.72.764%
SE Missouri St.62.9at75.5Bradley67.380.2%
North Texas66.6at86.8Texas Tech74.588.5%
UTSA57.1at77Oklahoma St.6790.9%
Loyola Chicago59.7at68.8Eastern Illinois66.174.7%
8:05 PMIndiana76.2at68.8Evansville71.768.6%
Nebraska-Omaha60.6at73.6Mo. Kansas City67.181.5%
9:00 PMLong Beach St.60at79Pittsburgh63.689.2%
9:05 PMGrambling St.58.6at74.1Utah Valley68.685.9%
10:00 PMNew Mexico St.69.9at77New Mexico72.367.9%
CSU Bakersfield53.9at78.8Cal Poly6794.9%
Hofstra63.8at78.8Oregon St.71.283.6%
10:30 PMOral Roberts76.9vs.61.5AR Pine Bluff67.784.8%
11:00 PMSan Jose St.63at75.1San Francisco69.679.4%

Note (12:50 PM): The table below has been changed slightly from the version that went up earlier today. I've been between over a point per game high on the score totals for visiting teams, and about three-quarters of a point high for the home teams. Looking back at previous seasons, it turns out that offenses aren't as efficient early in the season--mostly due to higher turnover rates--so I built in an adjustment for that into this model. I've also changed the rate at which this season's data is introduced into the model. I'd originally done it linearally, but that appears to have been too much, too fast. 

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