Today's Games: 11/16/2011

Time	Visitors	Exp. Score			Home	Poss.	Conf.
7:00 PM	Long Island	64.2	at	77	Penn St.	69.8	80.2%
	Jackson St.	52.2	at	68.1	Wright St.	63.7	88.5%
	Stetson	55.4	at	75.8	Florida St.	71.9	91.7%
	LA Monroe	51	at	77	Tennessee	62.6	96%
	Princeton	59.9	at	77.9	N.C. State	66.8	88.2%
	South Dakota St.	64.7	at	74.8	Georgia	66.6	75.3%
	Cornell	62.4	at	74.6	Buffalo	69	79.9%
	Mount St. Mary's	55.4	at	68.2	Hartford	68.1	83.2%
	Jacksonville	55.9	at	61.4	Savannah St.	66.2	67.3%
	Navy	66.5	at	73	Siena	75.5	67.2%
	Howard	50	at	64.7	Old Dominion	61.8	88%
	St. Francis (NY)	67.5	at	72.9	Lafayette	69.1	64.4%
	Vermont	63.1	at	57.8	Dartmouth	63.2	66.4%
	Georgia Southern	64.3	at	84.2	Wake Forest	74	88.9%
7:05 PM	Clemson	66.8	at	60	Citadel	65.1	69.7%
7:30 PM	Florida Atlantic	59.8	at	59.6	American	59.2	50.4%
	Sam Houston St.	58.1	at	78.8	Notre Dame	67.1	91.3%
	N.C. Central	59.1	at	70.4	Wagner	68.6	79.4%
8:00 PM	Wis. Green Bay	64.2	at	81.3	North Dakota St.	70.2	86.1%
	Colgate	47.3	at	80.2	Wisconsin	61	98.3%
	Utah	70.1	at	75.6	Boise St.	72.7	64%
	SE Missouri St.	62.9	at	75.5	Bradley	67.3	80.2%
	Oakland	70	at	81.2	Arkansas	76.5	75.9%
	North Texas	66.6	at	86.8	Texas Tech	74.5	88.5%
	UTSA	57.1	at	77	Oklahoma St.	67	90.9%
	Creighton	65.2	at	68.9	UAB	63.9	60.5%
	Loyola Chicago	59.7	at	68.8	Eastern Illinois	66.1	74.7%
8:05 PM	Indiana	76.2	at	68.8	Evansville	71.7	68.6%
	Nebraska-Omaha	60.6	at	73.6	Mo. Kansas City	67.1	81.5%
9:00 PM	Long Beach St.	60	at	79	Pittsburgh	63.6	89.2%
9:05 PM	Grambling St.	58.6	at	74.1	Utah Valley	68.6	85.9%
10:00 PM	New Mexico St.	69.9	at	77	New Mexico	72.3	67.9%
	CSU Bakersfield	53.9	at	78.8	Cal Poly	67	94.9%
	Hofstra	63.8	at	78.8	Oregon St.	71.2	83.6%
10:30 PM	Oral Roberts	76.9	vs.	61.5	AR Pine Bluff	67.7	84.8%
11:00 PM	San Jose St.	63	at	75.1	San Francisco	69.6	79.4%

Note (12:50 PM): The table below has been changed slightly from the version that went up earlier today. I've been between over a point per game high on the score totals for visiting teams, and about three-quarters of a point high for the home teams. Looking back at previous seasons, it turns out that offenses aren't as efficient early in the season--mostly due to higher turnover rates--so I built in an adjustment for that into this model. I've also changed the rate at which this season's data is introduced into the model. I'd originally done it linearally, but that appears to have been too much, too fast.