Monday, October 29, 2012

New & Improved Projections Are Live

The 2013 projections are now based on the actual team rosters rather than my inferred rosters based on remaining eligibility and known transfers. I've tried to remove as many players as possible who I know to be injured, suspended, or taking redshirt years, but if I've got anyone included in the projections who shouldn't be there, please let me know.

Another small but important tweak that I've built into the system is to correct incoming players' anticipated defensive rates based on the defense they'll be playing in. This isn't necessary for returning players, because the system adjustment is built into the baseline from which the projections are derived. For freshmen, though, the tweak needs to be made. A player in Shaka Smart's Havoc defense will get more steals than the exact same player would if he was playing in a more positional system; Florida State's freshmen will have a better defensive two-point field goal percentage than they would if they were playing in a system that didn't place so much emphasis on denying those shots.

I'll continue updating the projections through next Thursday as injury, suspension, and eligibility news comes in.

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