Bubble Watch: Selection Sunday

This is my last, best guess at the selections and seeding for the 2014 NCAA Tournament.

Bracket notes:

• The seeds and selections are made via a prediction system I've developed. The bracket was built by hand based on those rankings.
• I'll post an update this afternoon should St. Joseph's win the A-10 championship
• The last four teams into the field who don't have to go to Dayton are Iowa, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, and Arizona State.
• The last four teams into the field are Minnesota, Xavier, Nebraska, and Dayton.
• The first four teams left out are Florida State, Missouri, St. Joseph's, and Southern Miss.

Locks (32):

Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Michigan, Creighton, Michigan St., Syracuse, Kentucky, VCU, Cincinnati, San Diego St., Connecticut, Ohio St., Oregon, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Baylor, Pittsburgh, Saint Louis, Tennessee, Oklahoma St., Texas, Colorado, Memphis, Massachusetts, Stanford, BYU, Geo. Washington
The winners of the ACC, Big Ten, SEC, and possibly A-10 will come from this list.

On The Bubble (13 teams for 7 or 8 spots):

Iowa (89%)
SMU (82%)
Kansas St. (81%)
Arizona St. (74%)
Minnesota (72%)
Xavier (57%)
Nebraska (55%)
Dayton (50%)
Florida St. (48%)
Missouri (45%)
St. Joseph's (43%)
Southern Miss (34%)
St. John's (13%)

Long Shots:

Arkansas (8%), Louisiana Tech (7%), California (5%), N.C. State (4%), Utah (4%)