Saturday, March 3, 2007

THREE GAMES AND EIGHT SCENARIOS

All three games tomorrow will impact Tourney seeding. The bottom three are set, no matter what happens. Wake and N.C. State are tied for 10th at 5-11, but State takes the 10 seed by virtue of their regular-season sweep of the Deacons. Miami is the 12 seed at 4-10. Here are the eight possible outcomes for the rest of the seeds that could happen by this time tomorrow night:

VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA TECH, AND NORTH CAROLINA WIN
There's a 3-way tie for first place at 11-5 among UVa, VPI, and UNC. Tiebreaker rules stipulate that in such a situation a "mini conference" is formed among the three or more teams that are tied, and the records therein determine seeding order. So VPI (3-1) gets the 1 seed; UNC and UVa are both 2-1 1-2, but UNC gets the 2 seed by virtue of their win over UVa in the teams' only meeting. Boston College and Maryland tie for 4th at 10-6, but BC claims the 4 seed by virtue of their December 10 victory over the Terps. Duke and Georgia Tech tie for 6th place at 8-8, but GT owns the tiebreaker there (the two split the regular season, but GT is 1-3 against the three-headed first-place monster, while Duke is 0-4). Florida State is the only team at 7-9, so they are the 8 seed. They play 9-seed Clemson (6-10).

VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA TECH, AND DUKE WIN
Virginia and Virginia Tech tie for first with identical 11-5 records, and even though they split the season series, the Hokies would earn the top seed by virtue of their 3-1 record against UNC and Boston College 4-1 record against UNC, BC, and Maryland; Virginia was 0-2 2-2 against those teams. UNC, BC, and Maryland tie for 3rd place with 10-6 records, and all were 1-1 in the mini-conference. Boston College gets the 3 seed because it went 2-1 against UVa and VPI; UNC (1-2) is the 4 seed; Maryland (0-3) is the 5 seed. Duke is the lone team at 9-7, so they're the 6 seed. Georgia Tech is alone at 8-8 and gets the 7 seed. FSU (7-9) is the 8 seed, and Clemson (6-10) is the 9 seed.

VIRGINIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE, AND NORTH CAROLINA WIN
There's a 4-way tie for first place at 11-5, and the tie is broken by the mini-conference records. VPI (4-2) gets the 1 seed, UNC (2-2) is the 2 seed, BC (also 2-2, but beaten by UNC in their only meeting) is the 3 seed, and UVa is the 4 seed. Maryland is alone at 10-6 and gets the 5 seed, and Duke is the only team at .500 and gets the 6 seed. Georgia Tech and FSU tie for 7th place at 7-9, but GT swept the season series, so the Jackets are the 7 seed. FSU plays 9-seed Clemson (6-10).

VIRGINIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE, AND DUKE WIN
The three-way tie at 11-5 is broken by mini-conference records, with VPI (3-1) slotted first, Boston College (1-2 with a win over UVa) second BC (2-1) getting the 1 seed, VPI (2-2) seeded second, and UVa (1-2) third. North Carolina and Maryland tie for 4th at 10-6, with Maryland taking the 4 seed because of their head-to-head win over Carolina. Duke is the 6 seed at 8-8. Georgia Tech and FSU tie for 7th place at 7-9, but GT swept the season series, so the Jackets are the 7 seed. FSU plays 9-seed Clemson (6-10).

CLEMSON, GEORGIA TECH, AND NORTH CAROLINA WIN
Virginia and North Carolina tie for first place, with the Heels taking the 1 seed based on head-to-head. Virginia Tech, BC, and Maryland are in a three-way tie for 3rd at 10-6; VPI and BC tie in the mini-conference at 2-1, but VPI gets the 3 seed by virtue of being 3-1 against UVa and UNC, while BC is only 1-2; Maryland (0-2 in the mini-conference) is the 5 seed. Duke and Georgia Tech tie for 6th place at 8-8, but GT owns the tiebreaker there (the two split the regular season, but GT is 1-3 against the three-headed first-place monster, while Duke is 0-4). FSU and Clemson tie at 7-9, but Clemson wears white in the 8-9 game thanks to their season sweep of the Seminoles.

CLEMSON, GEORGIA TECH, AND DUKE WIN
Virginia takes first place in the regular season outright at 11-5. North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Maryland are in a four-way tie for second place at 10-6. Virginia Tech (4-1 in the mini-conference) is the 2 seed; BC (2-2) is seeded 3rd; Maryland (1-2) is the 4 seed; North Carolina (1-2) plays on Thursday. Duke (9-7) is the 6 seed. Georgia Tech (8-8) is slotted 7th. FSU and Clemson tie at 7-9, but Clemson wears white in the 8-9 game thanks to their season sweep of the Seminoles.

CLEMSON, BOSTON COLLEGE, AND NORTH CAROLINA WIN
UVa, BC, and UNC tie for first place at 11-5; North Carolina (2-0 in the mini-conference) is the 1 seed, Boston College (1-1) the 2, and UVa (0-2) the 3. Virginia Tech and Maryland tie for 4th at 10-6, but VPI takes the tiebreaker and the Terps play on Thursday. Duke is the 6 seed at 8-8. Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson are in a 3-way tie for 7th place at 7-9; Georgia Tech and Clemson are both 3-1 in the mini-conference, but Clemson gets the 7 seed by virtue of their 2-3 record versus the three-headed first-place monster, whereas GT is only 1-2 and gets to wear white in the 8 vs. 9 game against FSU.

CLEMSON, BOSTON COLLEGE, AND DUKE WIN
Virginia and Boston College tie for first place at 11-5, with BC taking the 1 seed thanks to their lone head-to-head contest. Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Maryland tie for 3rd place, with Virginia Tech (3-0 in the mini-conference) the 3 seed, Maryland (1-1) the 4, and North Carolina (0-3) playing on Thursday. Duke is the 6 seed at 9-7. Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Clemson are in a 3-way tie for 7th place at 7-9; Georgia Tech and Clemson are both 3-1 in the mini-conference, but Clemson gets the 7 seed by virtue of their 2-3 record versus the three-headed first-place monster, whereas GT is only 1-2 and gets to wear white in the 8 vs. 9 game against FSU.


I hope this clears everything up and enlightens everyone's rooting interests for tomorrow's three contests. Should be a hell of a day, and one hell of a Tournament.

Update (11:30 p.m.): There were a few errors in the original post; as far as I can tell, the only scenario in which I had the wrong order was VPI/BC/Duke win, but I've crossed through the errors and made the appropriate changes in red. If there are any more that I missed, let me know.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lots of errors in your scenarios. In the VT, BC, Duke win BC would get the #1 seed. BC would be 3-1, VT 2-2, UVA 1-2. There are other errors, too many to post.

Vince said...

Thanks for the input. I've fixed all the errors I could find. For what it's worth, BC would actually be 2-1 (split with VPI, beat UVa in only meeting), not 3-1, in the VPI/BC/Duke scenario.