I've added a feature to the sidebar containing a list of the 16 most likely national champions based on the probabilities for game outcomes according to TAPE. It also contains a link to the source spreadsheet which contains a complete breakdown of each team's chances of reaching each round of the tournament as well as a table listing each team's win probabilities against each of the other 63 teams in the Tournament. The spreadsheet will be updated at the conclusion of each game, so the probabilities in the sidebar and on the sheet labeled "CHANCES (current)" should be accurate as of whenever you're reading them. The regional breakdowns are reproduced below. As usual, if all you see is text, click back to the blog to see the post in full context, or just click over to the Google doc to see the whole thing.
The selection committee gave North Carolina the top seed in the Tournament, but TAPE sees them as the weakest of the #1 seeds. The potential Sweet Sixteen matchup between the up-and-down Heels and a plodding Wazzu team would be a colossal struggle for tempo.
The supposed 4th-best team in the tournament is actually the best according to TAPE. Interestingly, Kansas is both the overwhelming favorite to win the National Championship and the #1 seed most likely to lose in the first round, thanks to playing the strongest 16-seed in Portland State. With TAPE favorites Wisconsin and Georgetown also in the Midwest, this is far and away the strongest region. There's almost a 4 in 10 chance that the National Champion will come out of this bracket.
Marquette is criminally underseeded as a 6 seed, but a second round game between two of TAPE's top 15 teams could be one of the better games of the opening weekend, assuming both escape their opening games.
The West's 7-10 game between TAPE #14 West Virginia and #16 Arizona will be one of the best games of the first weekend; unfortunately, most of the country will be asleep by the time this one tips off at around 10 p.m. Eastern.
I'll be posting score and pace predictions for every game in the tournament, as well as simulator-generated capsules on all games involving ACC teams. If there's any additional information you'd like to see, let me know and I'll try and work it in.
I'll be posting score and pace predictions for every game in the tournament, as well as simulator-generated capsules on all games involving ACC teams. If there's any additional information you'd like to see, let me know and I'll try and work it in.
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