NCAA First Four Preview

6:40 Tuesday, Dayton					71.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Miss. Valley St.	32.9%	66.0	44.3	21.7	31.6	23.1
16	West. Kentucky	67.1%	71.7	49.0	23.1	33.3	32.1

How bad is the SWAC as a conference? So bad that the team that dominated the league en route to a 17-1 record not only gets sent to play in Dayton on a Tuesday night, but is nearly a six-point underdog (4.5 points according to Vegas) to the only team in the field with a losing record in the regular season.

9:10 Tuesday, Dayton					76.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14	BYU	47.9%	82.3	52.8	20.2	32.2	22.2
14	Iona	52.1%	83.0	54.7	19.2	26.9	23.6

President Obama will be attending one or both First Four games on Tuesday night, and while the BYU-Iona matchup won't necessarily pit two powerhouses it ought to at least be an entertaining game to introduce British Prime Minister David Cameron to the great American game of college basketball. With plentiful made shots and relatively few turnovers or fouls, this makes for one of the more aesthetically pleasing games on the docket.

6:40 Wednesday, Dayton					63.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Lamar	55.2%	65.7	44.4	15.9	34.6	27.2
16	Vermont	44.8%	64.2	47.2	20.6	33.7	25.4

Vermont sophomore forward Brian Voelkel is one of the best basketball players in Division I. According to PAPER, he's the 24th-best player in the nation in terms of value per possession; that puts him just ahead of Colorado's Andre Roberson and Robbie Hummel of Purdue, and just behind Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt and Iona's Scott Machado. Voelkel isn't a prolific scorer, though--he averages under points per game and doesn't even hit 35% of his shots--so the fact that he does just about everything else well tends to go unnoticed. He was only a third-team all-conference selection in the America East. When you watch this game, keep an eye on #23 in the Vermont jersey. He's one hell of a basketball player.

9:10 Wednesday, Dayton					59.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	California	55.6%	57.9	45.8	18.6	28.1	23.1
12	South Florida	44.4%	56.3	46.8	22.4	30.8	19.0

Cal is a team that everyone knows is pretty good that just kept losing a whole bunch of games they had no business losing, and South Florida is a team that everyone rightly acknowledges isn't very good at all but somehow just keeps winning games. I love college basketball, but I can't find any compelling reason to watch this game.

Today's Game: The National Championship

9:23 Monday, Houston					62.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
8	Butler	34.7%	65.3	45.6	14.9	33.5	20.0
3	Connecticut	65.3%	70.3	50.2	16.4	34.4	30.0

NCAA Final Four Preview

6:09 Saturday, Houston					63 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	VCU	39.2%	67.9	51.5	17.8	27.7	30.1
8	Butler	60.8%	71.4	51.1	17.8	37.1	26.3

What accounts for VCU's improbable run more than anything else is their torrid three-point shooting. Through their first 34 games, the Rams hit 35.9% of their three-point attempts. That's good--the national average is 34.4%--but it's not exactly anything spectacular. In their five NCAA Tournament games, though, VCU has hit 43.8% of their attempts from beyond the arc, which is insane. It's a full percentage point better than the best three-point shooting team shot over the course of the full season. The million-dollar question, then, is whether this is a function of luck or a hot-shooting streak, or whether there's something deeper at play.

The numbers indicate that there is. VCU's assist rate over the course of the regular season was, like their three-point shooting, pretty good but not great, with assists recorded on 58.5% of made baskets. In the Tournament, that number has spiked to 69.1%, which is a level usually only achieved by teams running Princeton offenses. That would indicate that VCU's shooters haven't been getting lucky. They've been getting open.

On defense, the trend has been reversed. In the regular season and the CAA Tournament, VCU's opponents recorded assists on 54.6% of their baskets; in the NCAA Tournament, that number has dropped to 46.9%. The Rams aren't getting any more steals or rebounding any better in the Tournament than they did in the regular season. They're simply denying the passing lanes and making their opponents beat them one-on-one.

There's a simple reason that no one could have predicted this run from Virginia Commonwealth: they've become a completely different team at both ends of the floor than they ever were at any point during the season.

8:49 Saturday, Houston					63.9 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
4	Kentucky	62.2%	72.2	49.2	14.6	35.5	22.3
3	Connecticut	37.8%	68.1	44.5	15.1	36.6	24.0

The late game on Saturday may be the better game in terms of the quality of the teams involved, but it's sure not as interesting as the undercard. It's a little surprising to me that Kentucky is being treated as the underdog by the media despite being favored by Vegas and the computers.

NCAA Elite Eight Preview

4:30 Saturday, New Orleans					60.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
8	Butler	37.2%	63.7	48.3	15.3	28.8	20.3
2	Florida	62.8%	67.8	54.0	18.7	33.1	27.7

7:05 Saturday, Anaheim					64.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
5	Arizona	49.3%	72.3	51.0	16.9	34.4	25.8
3	Connecticut	50.7%	72.6	49.3	15.9	35.6	27.9

2:20 Sunday, San Antonio					67.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	VCU	9.7%	66.1	45.5	18.3	27.9	24.0
1	Kansas	90.3%	83.2	59.6	20.7	40.8	27.9

5:05 Sunday, Newark					70 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
4	Kentucky	63%	75.8	48.6	16.0	32.8	21.8
2	North Carolina	37%	71.3	44.7	16.4	34.0	24.5

Friday Sweet Sixteen Preview

7:15 Friday, Newark					71.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	Marquette	38.9%	74.3	47.0	17.6	33.4	24.7
2	North Carolina	61.1%	78.0	51.6	19.8	35.9	25.4

7:27 Friday, San Antonio					64.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	Richmond	16.6%	63.9	47.6	16.4	24.2	20.2
2	Kansas	83.4%	75.9	55.1	18.6	38.6	24.7

9:45 Friday, Newark					63.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
4	Kentucky	35.5%	69.1	51.9	19.1	31.9	21.5
1	Ohio St.	64.5%	73.8	52.1	14.0	32.2	24.8

9:57 Friday, San Antonio					67.7 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	VCU	32.8%	65.2	44.0	19.4	30.7	25.7
10	Florida St.	67.2%	70.9	51.4	24.4	38.9	27.5

Thursday Sweet Sixteen Preview

7:15 Thursday, Anaheim					61 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
3	Connecticut	39.8%	63.3	43.0	16.9	39.2	22.9
2	San Diego St.	60.2%	66.4	46.6	15.4	38.5	17.3

The best offense for each of these teams might just be a missed shot. The outcome will be determined by which team is better able to keep the other off the offensive glass.

7:27 Thursday, New Orleans					66.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
3	BYU	57.9%	74.0	50.9	14.3	27.7	23.1
2	Florida	42.1%	71.5	49.9	18.6	34.8	23.9

These two teams met a year ago in a 7-10 game in the very first game to tip off in the tournament. Jimmer Fredette scored 37 points in a double-overtime BYU victory. BYU, despite their lofty poll ranking, is not quite as good as they were a year ago, and Florida is a good deal better than they were then.

9:45 Thursday, Anaheim					67.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
5	Arizona	29.5%	72.2	49.0	19.9	34.8	28.4
1	Duke	70.5%	79.1	53.5	16.0	32.1	29.8

Would Duke have gone undefeated if Kyrie Irving hadn't been injured? I'm not convinced they would. The Blue Devils would undoubtedly have been a better team with Irving. They would have scored about two and a half additional points per game and allowed about three quarters of a point less over the course of ACC play. That probably would have elevated them in the TAPE ratings to being the equals of Kansas and Ohio State rather than being just a tad behind them. But the chances are still good that, somewhere along the line, the Devils would have had a bad night or two.

9:57 Thursday, New Orleans					53.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
8	Butler	23.2%	57.5	48.8	14.1	26.6	23.0
4	Wisconsin	76.8%	65.9	53.9	12.0	30.5	26.8

Prepare yourself to be amazed as a game in which the Bulldogs and Badgers are likely to score a combined 1.15 points per possession is described as a defensive struggle.

NCAA First Round Preview: East Region

12:15 Thursday, Tampa					60 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	Clemson	45.1%	61.1	46.0	19.6	35.5	27.3
5	West Virginia	54.9%	62.6	45.5	20.9	41.0	31.5

I'm sure I'm not the first to point out that it's shameful that the NCAA gave Clemson only 36 hours between the end of their First Four game in Dayton and this tip in Tampa. That they've prioritized the players and coaches being available to media on Wednesday by scheduling a 2 A.M. flight from Dayton to Tampa only makes it worse. Would it really have been so horrible to let the Tigers return to a hotel in Dayton for a good night's sleep before embarking for their next site sometime in the late morning or early afternoon? Hopefully next year the NCAA can work it out with their TV partners to ensure that teams in the First Four have at least 48 hours from tip to tip.

2:45 Thursday, Tampa					62.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13	Princeton	15.6%	61.0	44.9	17.6	27.6	25.1
4	Kentucky	84.4%	73.5	51.9	13.7	33.5	28.4

This year's Kentucky team is probably a little bit stronger overall than last year's version, but without a signature player like John Wall, they're not getting nearly as much attention as they did a year ago.

2:10 Friday, Cleveland					63.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9	Villanova	57.9%	69.8	48.6	17.8	35.2	31.7
8	George Mason	42.1%	67.2	49.6	16.4	28.2	25.0

Much has been made of the fact that Villanova has lost 10 of 15 games since their comeback win over Maryland on January 15. (I don't know why I felt the need to include Maryland in there. I've been watching too many games called by Tim Brandt.) Over those 15 games, though, the Wildcats have really only played four bad games: the 15-point loss at Providence, the 2-point escape at DePaul, the 13-point loss to St. John's, and the 21-point blowout at Notre Dame. Mostly, though, Villanova has been losing close games to good teams.

4:40 Friday, Cleveland					65.1 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	UTSA	1.7%	58.1	44.9	22.4	25.1	18.8
1	Ohio St.	98.3%	85.6	59.3	14.2	38.6	30.8

Or (dot-dot-dot)					62.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Alabama St.	0.4%	48.0	40.1	27.4	29.8	15.4
1	Ohio St.	99.6%	80.3	58.8	16.2	40.7	43.7

No matter how bad things get on Friday afternoon, members of one of these teams will be able to tell their grandkids that they were members of a team that won an NCAA Tournament game. I'm sure they'll probably leave of the "-San Antonio" or "State" part when they say who they beat.

7:15 Friday, Charlotte					78 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15	Long Island	9.2%	75.0	44.8	19.6	32.3	20.2
2	North Carolina	90.8%	93.8	54.5	16.8	40.0	23.9

After a season and a half of ugly basketball, Roy Williams has the Tar Heels looking like the Tar Heels again. If everything goes according to pattern, this season the Heels will lose to a team they probably shouldn't, and next year they'll win the National Championship.

7:27 Friday, Cleveland					65.4 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	Marquette	42.9%	70.9	49.3	16.0	30.8	31.9
6	Xavier	57.1%	73.2	52.8	19.0	32.3	31.8

On December 6, the point at which the TAPE rankings could reasonably pass the laugh test for the first time, Xavier was ranked #115. On January 1, they were ranked #92. The Musketeers kicked off their A-10 season with a 72-45 win at Rhode Island on January 9 and then a 79-50 home win over UMass on January 12, and those two games vaulted them all the way to #62. They just kept getting better over the rest of the season, and now they're ranked #31. If you're looking for a team on an upward trajectory, Xavier might be it.

9:45 Friday, Charlotte					68 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10	Georgia	25.8%	69.7	46.6	21.0	36.9	30.8
7	Washington	74.2%	78.3	50.5	15.2	37.9	21.1

TAPE puts the odds of Washington and Connecticut both reaching the Final Four and playing a Huskies vs. Huskies National Semifinal at 1-in-54. The odds of Georgia facing Butler in a Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs National Championship Game are 1-in-104,216.

9:57 Friday, Cleveland					64.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14	Indiana St.	15.7%	59.4	43.7	23.0	33.3	22.3
3	Syracuse	84.3%	72.3	50.7	17.2	37.2	30.2

NCAA First Round Preview: West Region

2:10 Thursday, Tucson					58.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10	Penn St.	44.0%	61.5	49.1	16.8	29.8	19.7
7	Temple	56.0%	63.3	50.4	15.6	29.8	20.7

Wasn't the pod system supposed to eliminate games like these? Penn State and Temple, whose campuses are less than 200 miles apart, will travel 2,300 miles west to play each other in Tucson. Morehead State and Louisville, just 140 miles apart in Kentucky, will travel 1,200 miles to play each other in Denver.

4:40 Thursday, Tucson					62.7 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15	Northern Colorado	12.7%	57.3	41.1	22.7	34.8	24.9
2	San Diego St.	87.3%	71.8	51.3	16.1	35.6	27.1

Much like Michael Phelps is a physical freak whose body was made for swimming, Kawhi Leonard has the perfect body to be a rebounding machine. He's only 6'7" or so, but his arms seem to hang almost to his knees. That lets him keep his dribble low enough to handle the ball with ease on the perimeter when he's not mixing it up inside. The only thing that keeps Leonard from being the best player in the country is that he just shoots too much from the outside (or doesn't make enough of the outside shots he takes). He's worth watching, though.

7:20 Thursday, Washington					63.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14	Bucknell	16.2%	60.7	44.6	16.5	25.1	16.9
3	Connecticut	83.8%	73.3	47.3	14.6	40.3	29.5

Uconn gets tagged as a one-man team, mostly because Kemba Walker is such a great player. Walker definitely makes that team go, but nobody wins five games in five days against quality competition without a really strong supporting cast.

9:50 Thursday, Washington					67.9 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	Missouri	45.4%	71.4	48.9	18.8	31.8	26.0
6	Cincinnati	54.6%	72.9	48.1	21.8	43.7	28.7

Cincinnati deserves to lose if for no other reason than that their uniforms are so stupid. They're designed to look like some animal--a bearcat, presumably--has slashed the shoulders and thighs with its claws. But Cincinnati are the Bearcats. Why would the bearcats have attacked themselves?

12:15 Friday, Tulsa					70.7 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13	Oakland	18.3%	72.7	46.2	17.5	32.9	22.4
4	Texas	81.7%	84.9	51.7	13.3	39.0	24.4

Oakland is a trendy upset pick, mostly thanks to their win at Tennessee and a one-point loss to Michigan State, to which I say, "So what?" Would anyone be picking the Volunteers or the Spartans to beat Texas here? Probably not. We tend to give far too much weight to singular (but impressive) data points when dealing with teams about which we have limited information. We need to also remember that Oakland was blown out by West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan. Sure, they can beat Texas, but it's not bloody likely.

12:40 Friday, Charlotte					61.4 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9	Tennessee	49.4%	63.7	46.8	18.7	35.4	25.3
8	Michigan	50.6%	63.9	50.5	16.3	24.0	21.6

Michigan went 1-3 against low-level competition in their trip to Europe this summer. John Belein has done a heck of a job to get the Wolverines from that Point A to this Point B.

2:45 Friday, Tulsa					67.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	Memphis	19.3%	67.2	48.7	21.0	30.6	25.0
5	Arizona	80.7%	78.4	52.6	18.3	38.0	34.0

Memphis is TAPE's #108 team in the nation. They're surrounded in the rankings by Montana, Northern Colorado, Dayton, and James Madison. They're the seventh-best team in Conference USA. All of which is to say that Arizona should have little trouble with the Tigers.

3:10 Friday, Charlotte					68.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Hampton	2.3%	56.1	37.5	19.2	26.9	20.4
1	Duke	97.7%	82.1	52.5	18.4	42.3	31.1

One of the things I'll miss now that all the Tournament games are shown in their entirety is playing the "how long will the 16-seed keep it interesting enough for CBS to stick with the game" game. I've been working on my Greg Gumbel voice so that I can let the audience at home know what game I'll be switching to, but the audience at home is probably going to be limited to just me and my wife, and I don't think she'll really get the joke. I'll have to take my enjoyment from her confused looks and growing annoyance at my inability to let the joke go.

NCAA First Round Preview: Southwest Region

1:40 Thursday, Denver					64.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13	Morehead St.	17.9%	59.0	44.3	27.6	39.7	27.6
4	Louisville	82.1%	70.9	54.4	20.5	33.4	22.8

That's not a misprint. Morehead State should rebound nearly 40% of their misses against Louisville, mostly thanks to the presence of rebounder extraordinaire Kenneth Faried (tooting my own horn a little bit, I'd like to note that I've been on the Faried Bandwagon for more than two years now). Unfortunately for the Eagles, they'll have plenty of offensive rebounding opportunities against a Cardinals team that possesses an excellent shooting defense.

4:10 Thursday, Denver					63.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	Richmond	43.2%	67.3	49.6	14.5	26.8	19.1
5	Vanderbilt	56.8%	69.5	50.0	18.7	35.0	29.1

Some east coast university is probably going to hire Chris Mooney to run their basketball program this spring, and with good reason. He's shown at Air Force that he can get the best out of someone else's players, and he's shown at Richmond that he can take a program with a decent basketball history to places it hasn't been before. And if fans of whatever school hires Mooney want an idea of what their future might look like, they should take a look at what Kevin Stallings has built in Nashville.

1:40 Friday, Chicago					63.2 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15	Akron	13.7%	62.5	46.1	13.9	23.7	15.2
2	Notre Dame	86.3%	76.5	54.1	15.2	35.3	37.4

The MAC-over-Big East upset of a year ago came about because Ohio had one of the best pure point guards in the nation in DJ Cooper and was facing a seriously flawed Georgetown team. While Notre Dame's performance doesn't quite stand up to their reputation, the Fighting Irish should have no trouble putting the Zips away.

4:10 Friday, Chicago					63.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10	Florida St.	50.1%	61.2	46.4	22.9	32.8	26.9
7	Texas A&M	49.9%	61.1	42.7	21.6	35.7	31.3

This matchup between football schools with accidentally good basketball teams should be the highlight of the Friday afternoon offerings. It'll almost certainly be a closely-played game, and it might even be entertaining, but there's almost no chance of it being anything approaching aesthetically pleasing. It'll be smashmouth basketball.

6:50 Friday, Tulsa					64.9 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Boston U.	2.9%	58.0	40.5	19.5	28.9	23.7
1	Kansas	97.1%	82.5	57.6	16.4	41.3	26.1

According to TAPE, the odds of Boston U. and Wofford both advancing to the Final Four and giving the world a Terriers vs. Terriers battle royale, are 1-in-10,448,979. So, you know, there's still a chance.

7:20 Friday, Chicago					63.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14	St. Peter's	6.7%	51.0	40.0	25.3	28.6	21.4
3	Purdue	93.3%	69.3	46.8	15.5	34.9	31.7

This game is the biggest mismatch outside of the 1-16 games. The Peacocks aren't the worst team in the Tournament--they've actually got the 9th-best eFG defense in the nation--but Purdue just isn't a very good matchup for them.

9:20 Friday, Tulsa					66.1 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9	Illinois	49.0%	67.8	49.5	22.7	34.5	25.0
8	UNLV	51.0%	68.2	46.4	17.1	32.3	25.2

The media hook on this one is that it's Lon Kruger's new team playing Lon Kruger's old team, but all the players in this game were still in elementary school the last time Kruger coached the Illini.

9:50 Friday, Chicago					59.9 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	USC	38%	60.9	46.9	15.9	28.9	22.5
6	Georgetown	62%	64.6	51.5	18.3	29.5	25.9

Or (dot-dot-dot)					63.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	VCU	21.6%	65.3	47.3	17.3	29.5	25.6
6	Georgetown	78.4%	75.4	58.1	21.2	38	27.8

No matter what happens in this game and the WVU-Clemson game, people will find a way to tie the outcome to the fact that one team played a game two days earlier while the other had time off. If the play-in game winner loses to Georgetown, it'll be because they were worn out from the game and the travel; if Georgetown loses, it'll be because they got rusty while their opponent stayed sharp by playing the extra game. It's no-brainer, knee-jerk analysis that there's absolutely no way to prove or disprove.

NCAA First Round Preview: Southeast Region

12:40 Thursday, Washington					58 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9	Old Dominion	49.3%	62.5	49.0	20.2	39.6	27.3
8	Butler	50.7%	62.7	49.1	14.3	29.0	19.5

Old Dominion is the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, but their undoing might be that they just don't value possession enough. The contrast between Butler's precise, methodical style and ODU's physicality should make for an intriguing matchup.

3:10 Thursday, Washington					64.5 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	N.C. Asheville	7.1%	59.3	43.1	18.9	26.0	25.1
1	Pittsburgh	92.9%	77.8	53.8	20.1	46.7	36.1

When I was a student at Virginia, my friends and I used to get to games early enough to get seats in the first couple rows of the student section, which meant at University Hall that we were right on the floor behind the baseline. ("Early enough" at the end of the Jeff Jones era and the beginning of the Pete Gillen era generally meant showing up an hour before tipoff.) At the UNC game in 1999, Bruce Hornsby and his two kids happened to be sitting across the aisle from us. It was a typical Carolina game, in that it seemed none of the calls were going our way, and I was doing my best to make the game officials aware of my displeasure until at some point Bruce, in a friendly yet firm manner, asked me to tone it down. Y'know, for the kids. Virginia wound up losing the game when Ademola Okulaja hit a three pointer at the buzzer to break our hearts. Anyway, one of the little kids whose tender ears kept me from giving Mike Wood, Duke Edsall, and Karl Hess what-for will be playing hoops for Asheville next year. I feel old.

6:50 Thursday, Tampa					60.4 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15	UCSB	20.5%	58.9	49.4	20.9	24.4	18.2
2	Florida	79.5%	69.1	52.2	18.3	38.9	28.8

I'm gonna go out on a limb and make this my big upset pick. There's no analytic reason for such a pick--everything points to the Gators being able to handle the Gauchos easily--but I've just got a feeling about this one. I'll either look like a genius or a fool come 9:00 Thursday night. I'm far more accustomed to the latter.

7:15 Thursday, Denver					66.8 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14	Wofford	16.8%	68.8	47.5	18.1	31.4	25.9
3	BYU	83.2%	81.3	54.5	15.1	34.3	34.5

Jimmer Fredette is an amazing scorer, and one of the most entertaining players in recent memory, but he's far from being a complete basketball player. Jackson Emery does all the dirty work that allows Fredette to be The Jimmer, but he doesn't get much credit. So when you're watching BYU play, be sure to shift a little bit of your focus to the guy in the #4 jersey. When you do that, you'll be watching the Cougars' best player.

7:27 Thursday, Tucson					58.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13	Belmont	31.8%	63.0	50.9	17.8	30.2	22.7
4	Wisconsin	68.2%	68.9	51.8	16.1	35.6	30.4

I've been telling anyone who will listen for the last two months that Belmont would be a surprise Sweet Sixteen team. I've also been telling people that this is the year Wisconsin finally puts it all together and makes a deep run. My heart sank when these two popped up next to each other on Sunday.

9:20 Thursday, Tampa					64.1 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10	Michigan St.	57.7%	67.2	46.0	17.3	35.6	26.1
7	UCLA	42.3%	64.8	47.6	20.3	31.7	31.7

This is one of just three games in which TAPE favors a double-digit seed. I don't think that's an indication so much that the selection committee did a good job of seeding the Tournament as it is an accident of pairing underseeded and overseeded teams into the same games (see ODU-Butler and Belmont-Wisconsin for examples of each).

9:45 Thursday, Denver					66.4 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	Gonzaga	49.3%	68.1	51.4	26.2	35.1	34.0
6	St. John's	50.7%	68.3	47.4	18.8	30.3	34.0

Those who value experience over all else will probably be picking St. John's to go far in this year's Tournament. Seniors have accounted for 87.3% of the Johnnies' floor minutes this season.

9:57 Thursday, Tucson					63.1 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	Utah St.	52.6%	64.4	47.5	21.8	33.6	37.8
5	Kansas St.	47.4%	63.6	45.5	18.3	34.2	26.1

TAPE pegs the odds of Utah State meeting Texas A&M in an all-Aggies Final Four game at 1-in-833.

NCAA Tournament Preview: The First Four

We'll follow the same basic template as last year for the postseason games. NCAA Tournament games will get the expanded previews like below, wherein I'll add a thought or two on each matchup. The NIT and lesser tournaments will get the Today's Games treatment, with the games presented in the tabular format, and some commentary below whenever I feel it necessary.

6:30 Tuesday, Dayton					65.9 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	UNC-Asheville	64.2%	69.2	50.1	20.4	31.6	33.5
16	UALR	35.8%	64.6	45.6	21.1	33.0	29.2

By just about any measure, UNC-Asheville is not one of the four worst teams in the field, but the NCAA is surely reluctant to seed both of the automatic qualifier teams from the HBCU leagues into the play-in round. So while Hampton prepares for a ritual slaughter at the hands of Duke, Asheville is on a charter plane to Dayton.

9:00 Tuesday, Dayton					59.1 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12	UAB	36.4%	57.6	46.8	21.6	32.0	20.5
12	Clemson	63.6%	61.8	47.7	18.1	33.8	24.0

If the seed lines are to be believed, these are the last two at-large teams invited to the Tournament. In most years, the last at-large in the field is a 13-seed. The inclusion of UAB and VCU instead of Colorado and Virginia Tech has drawn considerable outrage, but the fact that the last 21 lines on the S-curve are occupied by automatic qualifiers is a sure indicator that there was a good deal more bid thievery that took place in the conference tournaments than we all realized.

6:30 Wednesday, Dayton					64.3 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16	Alabama St.	26.8%	60.6	43.5	21.9	37.0	24.9
16	UTSA	73.2%	68.4	48.5	19.9	33.6	41.6

Someone on the committee really wanted to save the scoreboard operator in Dayton some time. Or perhaps with only 48 hours between the announcement of the field and  tipoff the NCAA wanted the banners to take as little time to produce as possible. How else does one explain the alphabet soup that's converging there for the First Four games?

9:00 Wednesday, Dayton					62 possessions
Team		WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11	VCU	29.1%	62.5	46.6	17.3	27.8	25.8
11	USC	70.9%	69.3	52.8	18.6	35.4	24.6

I really thought the compromise reached by the NCAA on the makeup of the First Four participants would have elicited more negative reaction than it has. I figured that once people saw the thing in practice, they'd either be clamoring for more exciting matchups of bubble teams, or they'd be decrying the complete lack of fairness that the compromise solution brought about. Somehow, neither has come about, and it's probably because the Committee blew their selections so badly that it's sucked all the oxygen out of the conversation that should be going on right now. Hopefully as we get into Monday and Tuesday someone will notice how ridiculous the whole situation is.

Today's Game: The National Championship

9:21, Indianapolis				63.1 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
Butler	27.3%	62.8	45.4	18.2	27.4	42.2
Duke	72.7%	69.8	50.2	17.9	34.9	34.6

NCAA Final Four Preview

6:07, Indianapolis				63.7 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
Michigan St.	47.2%	65.4	50.8	22.0	34.1	28.5
Butler	52.8%	66.3	49.0	17.1	25.7	35.7

I went back and forth about whether to call this a neutral site or a Butler home game. My general rule of thumb is to call a game a home game when two of the following three conditions are met: the game is within an hour's drive of one team's campus, one team is more familiar with the venue than the other, and one team will have a distinct crowd advantage. I decided to stick with neutral because, in this case, only the first will really apply for Butler.

8:47, Indianapolis				62.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
West Virginia	36.4%	65.1	45.1	18.3	38.5	33.6
Duke	63.6%	69.2	48.4	17.8	37.2	40.3

This game probably won't be pretty to watch, but the intensity level should make for good television. Both teams score well over a point per possession in the simulation, yet neither cracks the 50% eFG mark. That's mostly thanks to West Virginia and Duke ranking first and second, respectively, in adjusted Offensive Rebounding Rate. The Mountaineers shouldn't hold out much hope for a repeat of the Kentucky game from outside the arc. Duke defends the three-pointer better than anyone in the country, and the model predicts that WVU will shoot under 28% from outside.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Elite Eight

4:30 Saturday, Salt Lake City				67.2 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
5 Butler	44.4%	68.7	47.4	20.7	30.9	48.9
2 Kansas St.	55.6%	70.4	50.7	21.1	34.8	36.2

7:00 Saturday, Syracuse				65.2 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
2 West Virginia	50.6%	68.9	44.7	17.3	40.1	28.4
1 Kentucky	49.4%	68.7	51.3	21.2	34.9	36.8

2:20 Sunday, St. Louis				68.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
6 Tennessee	46.6%	67.6	48.3	18.2	26.7	23.8
5 Michigan St.	53.4%	68.7	48.0	23.9	38.5	34.3

5:05 Sunday, Houston				64.2 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
3 Baylor	29.2%	67.1	50.0	20.5	33.4	29.8
1 Duke	70.8%	73.8	47.4	14.4	40.0	32.5

NCAA Sweet Sixteen Preview: Friday's Games

MIDWEST

7:07, St. Louis				67.6 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
6 Tennessee	33.0%	65.1	48.6	20.3	26.4	22.9
2 Ohio St.	67.0%	70.4	52.0	19.5	26.8	34.3

It's really jarring to see Stephen Pearl running around out there without any socks.

9:37, St. Louis				59.8 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9 Northern Iowa	43.9%	59.8	46.6	17.2	26.6	27.4
5 Michigan St.	56.1%	61.6	49.5	20.9	35.4	25.7

Losing Kalin Lucas shouldn't be a big deal for Michigan State. Despite the Big Ten Player of the Year hype, Lucas graded out as a below-average player over the course of the full season as well as in Big Ten games. It shouldn't be a big deal, except for the fact that it is. Korie Lucious isn't the player that Kalin Lucas is, and Chris Allen is also dealing with an injury. Lucas is probably worth a point per game more than his replacements, so this game is essentially a coin flip.

SOUTH

7:27, Houston				65.6 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10 St. Mary's	41.0%	73.1	50.3	15.9	33.4	27.3
3 Baylor	59.0%	75.9	53.1	14.3	32.8	24.6

This game is going to be played in the middle of a football field three hours from Baylor's campus, so the crowd-loves-the-underdog factor probably won't give the Gaels much of a boost.

9:57, Houston				66.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
4 Purdue	32.1%	65.2	44.9	16.5	26.8	32.4
1 Duke	67.9%	70.8	47.2	19.8	38.4	35.9

The only game in the Sweet Sixteen in which seeds held. The above projection has not been adjusted to account for Robbie Hummel's absence, but if you figure that Hummel is worth about three points per game, mostly on offense, then the score projection goes to something like 71.1-62.5, which is right in line with the 8½-point Vegas spread.

NCAA Sweet Sixteen Preview: Thursday's Games

WEST

7:07, Salt Lake City				68 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
5 Butler	34.8%	68.0	46.8	18.9	29.6	27.9
1 Syracuse	65.2%	72.9	56.6	22.8	31.4	27.3

Butler's probably a year away from mounting a serious Final Four challenge, but the way this Tournament's been progressing, it wouldn't be surprising to see it happen ahead of schedule.

9:37, Salt Lake City				72.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
6 Xavier	41.7%	76.0	49.3	21.1	35.6	41.1
2 Kansas St.	58.3%	78.6	49.2	17.4	36.3	34.1

Like free throws? This game should feature more than 61 attempts and almost 50 personal fouls. The team that can keep its best players out of foul trouble the longest might just be the team that wins this game.

EAST

7:27, Syracuse				68.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11 Washington	38.8%	71.3	47.0	18.1	33.4	37.4
2 West Virginia	61.2%	74.8	48.1	18.0	38.8	36.5

Losing Truck Bryant will hurt the Mountaineers' depth, but it shouldn't be a determining factor in their ability to advance. Bryant was the only Mountaineer regular to be below-average (in all games and in Big East play), and the difference between WVU with and without Bryant should be essentially a wash. Also, at what point did Bob Huggins transform into a middle-aged lesbian?

9:57, Syracuse				67.8 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12 Cornell	34.3%	72.6	51.4	17.9	29.7	23.1
1 Kentucky	65.7%	77.8	55.5	19.1	37.0	34.3

I'm actually a little surprised at how close this projection is. The Big Red rolled through Temple and Wisconsin--both good defensive teams--on a combined 67.2 eFG%, and the general thinking is that the hot shooting will need to continue for the big upset to take place. Really, though, if Cornell can simply match the 57.1 eFG% that they've averaged over the full season (something, it should be noted, that the model doesn't see happening) they'll have a good chance to win the game.