Friday, March 26, 2010

NCAA Sweet Sixteen Preview: Friday's Games


7:07, St. Louis67.6 possessions
6 Tennessee33.0%65.148.620.326.422.9
2 Ohio St.67.0%70.452.019.526.834.3
It's really jarring to see Stephen Pearl running around out there without any socks.

9:37, St. Louis59.8 possessions
9 Northern Iowa43.9%59.846.617.226.627.4
5 Michigan St.56.1%61.649.520.935.425.7
Losing Kalin Lucas shouldn't be a big deal for Michigan State. Despite the Big Ten Player of the Year hype, Lucas graded out as a below-average player over the course of the full season as well as in Big Ten games. It shouldn't be a big deal, except for the fact that it is. Korie Lucious isn't the player that Kalin Lucas is, and Chris Allen is also dealing with an injury. Lucas is probably worth a point per game more than his replacements, so this game is essentially a coin flip.


7:27, Houston65.6 possessions
10 St. Mary's41.0%73.150.315.933.427.3
3 Baylor59.0%75.953.114.332.824.6
This game is going to be played in the middle of a football field three hours from Baylor's campus, so the crowd-loves-the-underdog factor probably won't give the Gaels much of a boost.

9:57, Houston66.4 possessions
4 Purdue32.1%65.244.916.526.832.4
1 Duke67.9%70.847.219.838.435.9
The only game in the Sweet Sixteen in which seeds held. The above projection has not been adjusted to account for Robbie Hummel's absence, but if you figure that Hummel is worth about three points per game, mostly on offense, then the score projection goes to something like 71.1-62.5, which is right in line with the 8½-point Vegas spread.

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