NCAA Sweet Sixteen Preview: Friday's Games

MIDWEST

7:07, St. Louis				67.6 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
6 Tennessee	33.0%	65.1	48.6	20.3	26.4	22.9
2 Ohio St.	67.0%	70.4	52.0	19.5	26.8	34.3

It's really jarring to see Stephen Pearl running around out there without any socks.

9:37, St. Louis				59.8 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9 Northern Iowa	43.9%	59.8	46.6	17.2	26.6	27.4
5 Michigan St.	56.1%	61.6	49.5	20.9	35.4	25.7

Losing Kalin Lucas shouldn't be a big deal for Michigan State. Despite the Big Ten Player of the Year hype, Lucas graded out as a below-average player over the course of the full season as well as in Big Ten games. It shouldn't be a big deal, except for the fact that it is. Korie Lucious isn't the player that Kalin Lucas is, and Chris Allen is also dealing with an injury. Lucas is probably worth a point per game more than his replacements, so this game is essentially a coin flip.

SOUTH

7:27, Houston				65.6 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10 St. Mary's	41.0%	73.1	50.3	15.9	33.4	27.3
3 Baylor	59.0%	75.9	53.1	14.3	32.8	24.6

This game is going to be played in the middle of a football field three hours from Baylor's campus, so the crowd-loves-the-underdog factor probably won't give the Gaels much of a boost.

9:57, Houston				66.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
4 Purdue	32.1%	65.2	44.9	16.5	26.8	32.4
1 Duke	67.9%	70.8	47.2	19.8	38.4	35.9

The only game in the Sweet Sixteen in which seeds held. The above projection has not been adjusted to account for Robbie Hummel's absence, but if you figure that Hummel is worth about three points per game, mostly on offense, then the score projection goes to something like 71.1-62.5, which is right in line with the 8½-point Vegas spread.