Friday, April 2, 2010

NCAA Final Four Preview

6:07, Indianapolis63.7 possessions
Michigan St.47.2%65.450.822.034.128.5
I went back and forth about whether to call this a neutral site or a Butler home game. My general rule of thumb is to call a game a home game when two of the following three conditions are met: the game is within an hour's drive of one team's campus, one team is more familiar with the venue than the other, and one team will have a distinct crowd advantage. I decided to stick with neutral because, in this case, only the first will really apply for Butler.

8:47, Indianapolis62.5 possessions
West Virginia36.4%
This game probably won't be pretty to watch, but the intensity level should make for good television. Both teams score well over a point per possession in the simulation, yet neither cracks the 50% eFG mark. That's mostly thanks to West Virginia and Duke ranking first and second, respectively, in adjusted Offensive Rebounding Rate. The Mountaineers shouldn't hold out much hope for a repeat of the Kentucky game from outside the arc. Duke defends the three-pointer better than anyone in the country, and the model predicts that WVU will shoot under 28% from outside.

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