NCAA Final Four Preview

6:07, Indianapolis				63.7 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
Michigan St.	47.2%	65.4	50.8	22.0	34.1	28.5
Butler	52.8%	66.3	49.0	17.1	25.7	35.7

I went back and forth about whether to call this a neutral site or a Butler home game. My general rule of thumb is to call a game a home game when two of the following three conditions are met: the game is within an hour's drive of one team's campus, one team is more familiar with the venue than the other, and one team will have a distinct crowd advantage. I decided to stick with neutral because, in this case, only the first will really apply for Butler.

8:47, Indianapolis				62.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
West Virginia	36.4%	65.1	45.1	18.3	38.5	33.6
Duke	63.6%	69.2	48.4	17.8	37.2	40.3

This game probably won't be pretty to watch, but the intensity level should make for good television. Both teams score well over a point per possession in the simulation, yet neither cracks the 50% eFG mark. That's mostly thanks to West Virginia and Duke ranking first and second, respectively, in adjusted Offensive Rebounding Rate. The Mountaineers shouldn't hold out much hope for a repeat of the Kentucky game from outside the arc. Duke defends the three-pointer better than anyone in the country, and the model predicts that WVU will shoot under 28% from outside.