NCAA Predictions: Friday, March 21

The predictions below are based on TAPE matchups which compare teams in 20 statistical rate categories to determine how they stack up against each other, and then applies those rates to a possession model to determine how many points each is likely to score against the other.

15 American     65                      10 Davidson     71
2  Tennessee    80   (67 poss.)          7 Gonzaga      74   (69 poss.)

10 St. Mary's   73                      12 Western KY   68
7  Miami (FL)   71   (69 poss.)          5 Drake        72   (65 poss.)

10 S. Alabama   62                      15 UMBC         58
7  Butler       66   (66 poss.)          2 Georgetown   74   (61 poss.)

13 San Diego    62                      15 Austin Peay  63
4  Connecticut  74   (68 poss.)          2 Texas        82   (65 poss.)

11 St. Joseph's 65                      16 Mt. St. Mary 68
6  Oklahoma     68   (63 poss.)          1 N. Carolina  91   (76 poss.)

13 Siena        76                       9 Oregon       101
4  Vanderbilt   83   (73 poss.)          8 Miss. St.    100  (94 poss., 3OT)

14 Boise St.    68                       9 Arkansas     69
3  Louisville   80   (72 poss.)          8 Indiana      73   (69 poss.)

12 Villanova    71                      16 TX Arlington 62
5  Clemson      77   (72 poss.)          1 Memphis      84   (74 poss.)

Notes:

• On Thursday, only five of the sixteen games projected to play at faster than the national average tempo of about 67.6 possessions per 40 minutes. Only five of Friday's games project slower than the national average.
• Oregon-Mississippi State is the closest matchup of the opening round. Over the course of the 68.05 possessions the two teams would play in an average game, Oregon would score 73.10 points and Mississippi State would score 72.85. It takes three overtime periods at that pace for their expected point totals to even round to different numbers.
• Davidson and Siena seem to be the vogue upset picks for Friday's games, but TAPE sees both Gonzaga and Vanderbilt as relatively comfortable favorites.