Thursday, March 13, 2008

Tourney Preview: (5) Miami vs. (12) N.C. State

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Miami's a better team than N.C. State, but not so much better that it would qualify as a huge surprise should Sidney Lowe's charges win. State won the first and only meeting between these two teams eight weeks ago in Raleigh by a score of 79-77 (77 possessions), but it took an unlikely comeback in overtime to get the job done.

Miami's offensive efficiency is 1.0698 points per offensive possession in conference play, good for third-best in the league, despite being one of only four ACC teams to average less than 1 point per field goal attempt. With a turnover rate right around league-average, almost all of that offensive production is tied up in Miami's offensive rebounding prowess. Strong defensive rebounding teams should be able to negate Miami's advantage on the offensive glass, making them beatable by even some supposedly weaker teams. Unfortunately for Wolfpack fans, State is not a strong defensive rebounding team. Look for Miami to win the game on the glass.

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