NCAA Preview: (7) Miami vs. (10) St. Mary's

If you can't see the tables below, click back to the blog to see them, or click here to see them.

The Gaels are a tough matchup for the Hurricanes. While they're not an elite defensive rebounding team (.691 adjusted DR%, 102nd nationally), they're strong enough to limit Miami's second chances. That's important, because St. Mary's forces numerous misses both inside (.437 adjusted d2G%, #40 nationally) and outside (.306 adjusted d3G%, #14 nationally) the three point line.

NCAA Preview: (15) Belmont vs. (2) Duke

The entire eastern seaboard (except for the a little slice of upstate South Carolina) will begin the evening with this game. If Belmont can keep CBS from breaking away by halftime they'll have had a pretty good game. Both teams play up-tempo, so this figures to be the most up-and-down game of the day.

NIT Preview: Maryland at Syracuse

Just a brilliant scheduling move by the NIT and ESPN here. Counterprogramming the NCAA Tournament with the NIT is like putting the Arena League opposite the Super Bowl. One other thing to keep in mind if you happen to be watching this one tonight: all of the nation's top officials are most likely working NCAA games right now; what kind of crew is going to be calling this one?

NIT Preview: Morgan State at Virginia Tech

If you can't see the tables below, click back to the blog to see them.

I hate the new, politically-correct, NCAA-owned NIT. I'm not saying that the old NIT was perfect or anything--it was obviously biased towards teams from the Northeast, and there was always something that seemed just a little bit off about the way it was run--but at least it usually delivered some pretty solid basketball and compelling matchups in all of its games. Ever since the NCAA took over and instituted the silly rule that automatically invites all of the regular-season conference champions who crapped out of their conference tournaments, though, there have been five or six of these crazy lopsided first round games that exist for absolutely no reason. It's great that Morgan State won the MEAC, and it sucks that they lost in their conference tournament, but that's the way things go. There's no way Morgan State is a better team than Wake Forest or Utah or Washington or any of the dozens of teams that finished the season with winning records and would love to keep playing.

NIT Preview: Akron at Florida State

If you can't see the tables below, click back to the blog to see them.

There's not a whole lot to say about this one. Florida State is your everyday, garden-variety, mediocre ACC team; Akron is your everyday, garden-variety, above-average MAC team. In other words, the 'Noles are just about one and a half notches better at just about every basketball activity than the Zips. Florida State should win this one, but see Ohio's visit to College Park in December for a blueprint of how things could go wrong for Florida State tonight.

NIT Preview: Maryland at Minnesota

If you can't see the tables below, click back to the blog to see them.

The story of this game is turnovers. Minnesota is 12th-best in the nation in adjusted defensive turnover rate, forcing opponents to turn the ball over on 21.9% of their possessions; Maryland ranks 256th nationally in adjusted turnover rate, coughing the ball up 19.6% of the time. On average, Maryland would be expected to turn the ball over on over a quarter of its possessions against the Golden Gophers. For Gary Williams' team to win this game they'll have cut that turnover rate in half.

CBI Preview: Richmond at Virginia

If you can't see the tables below, click back to the blog to see them.

The College Basketball Invitational--the NIT's NIT--tips off its inaugural (and something tells me final) event tonight. The CBI features a few decent-but-still-not-really-all-that-good teams and a bunch of others whose Athletic Directors I'm assuming just happened to be in the office on Sunday night and answered the invitation with something along the lines of, "Sure, what the hell." Virginia is the only ACC team involved in this mess (when a 15-15 team is one of your marquee names it becomes clear that this isn't exactly a promoter's dream), and the Cavaliers take on Richmond tonight in the Basketball Jones.

Virginia should win this one, but if Richmond springs the upset it'll most likely be thanks to their three point shooting. The Spiders aren't a great shooting team from outside--they're just a little bit better than the national average with an adjusted 3G% of 36.1%--but they shoot often from outside in their Princeton-style offense, and Virginia has been abysmal at defending three pointers of late.

Tourney Preview: (1) North Carolina vs. (9) Florida State

The tables below might not show up in an RSS reader; if all you see is text, either click back to the blog to see them, or click here to see the source spreadsheet.

Florida State took its best shot at North Carolina in the first regular season meeting on February 3 in Tallahassee, forcing overtime before losing by a score of 84-73 (79 possessions). Ty Lawson hurt his ankle 3 minutes and 47 seconds into that contest, and the Heels were out of sorts without him. They turned the ball over 21 times, their highest turnover rate in any game this season, and those free possessions allowed the Seminoles to stay in the game. The second regular season contest went more according to form, with Carolina bettering FSU in nearly every aspect of a 90-77 (70 possessions) win on March 4 in Chapel Hill.

Tourney Preview: (6) Maryland vs. (11) Boston College

The tables below might not show up in an RSS reader; if all you see is text, either click back to the blog to see them, or click here to see the source spreadsheet.

The nightcap features the biggest mismatch of the day according to the oracle of TAPE. Maryland is slightly worse than average both offensively and defensively, scoring 1.034 and allowing 1.054 points per possession in conference play, while Boston College is just about dead average offensively (1.046 PPP) and horrible on the defensive side (1.114). The Eagles won the first meeting 81-78 (72 possessions) way back in the very first conference game of the year on December 9 in College Park, mostly thanks to BC attempting 41 free throws to Maryland's 17. Maryland evidently learned the lesson that it's hard to win when you send the opponent to the charity stripe on 27.4% of their possessions, as the Terps won the return game 70-65 (59 possessions) on February 6.

Looking at the numbers, it's apparent that while Maryland is definitely the better team, it's mostly due to being significantly better in just one area: making two-point baskets (and keeping the opponent from doing same, so I guess maybe that's two areas). BC's defense is completely reliant on a shotblocker cleaning up drives to the basket, and when they're not getting that (read: when Tyrelle Blair is either out of the game or otherwise occupied) things get ugly. Maryland's flex offense gets them better looks at two-point baskets than any team in the league. When strength meets weakness, things rarely go well for the weaker team. That said, a gameplan designed to take away the deuce might just leave the door open for an Eagle upset.

Tourney Preview: (7) Georgia Tech vs. (10) Virginia

The tables below might not show up in an RSS reader; if all you see is text, either click back to the blog to see them, or click here to see the source spreadsheet.

The first game of the evening session is almost as close as the nooner. Instead of good defensive teams that like to play at a moderate pace, though, Virginia and Georgia Tech are both average to above-average offensive teams (and fairly lousy defensive teams) that like to push tempo. ESPN probably lucked into the most entertaining game of the first round for their national coverage. In the first meeting on January 27 in the Basketball Jones, Virginia jumped out to a big lead early thanks to hot three point shooting, then didn't adjust after the threes stopped falling, eventually losing 92-82 (79 possessions) in overtime. The second match was slated to be played on February 21, but was postponed by rain until March 3. A back-and-forth affair, Virginia won 76-74 (74 possessions) on a Calvin Baker three-pointer in the closing seconds.

Neither team has a significant advantage in any facet of the game, and whatever small edge either has is offset by a shortcoming in a different area. The difference between the Wahoos and the Wreck has been razor thin in the two previous meetings--in the breakdowns as well as in the final scores--and the only thing that would be a surprise in the rubber game is a blowout.

Tourney Preview: (5) Miami vs. (12) N.C. State

The tables below might not show up in an RSS reader; if all you see is text, either click back to the blog to see them, or click here to view the source spreadsheet.

Miami's a better team than N.C. State, but not so much better that it would qualify as a huge surprise should Sidney Lowe's charges win. State won the first and only meeting between these two teams eight weeks ago in Raleigh by a score of 79-77 (77 possessions), but it took an unlikely comeback in overtime to get the job done.

Miami's offensive efficiency is 1.0698 points per offensive possession in conference play, good for third-best in the league, despite being one of only four ACC teams to average less than 1 point per field goal attempt. With a turnover rate right around league-average, almost all of that offensive production is tied up in Miami's offensive rebounding prowess. Strong defensive rebounding teams should be able to negate Miami's advantage on the offensive glass, making them beatable by even some supposedly weaker teams. Unfortunately for Wolfpack fans, State is not a strong defensive rebounding team. Look for Miami to win the game on the glass.

Tourney Preview: (8) Wake Forest vs. (9) Florida State

The tables below might not show up in an RSS reader; if all you see is text, either click back to the blog to see them, or click here to see the source spreadsheet.

The first game of the day also looks to be the closest, and it's the only one in which the TAPE favors the lower seeded team. While the result figures to be close, there's not a whole lot else that's all that compelling about it. Both are right at league-average in terms of defensive efficiency, with Wake giving up 1.0444 points per possession (6th in the ACC) and FSU allowing 1.0465 (7th) in conference play. Both are well below average offensively; FSU ranks 11th-best in league play at 0.9929 points per possession, and Wake isn't all that far ahead in 9th place at 1.0102 points per possession. All of this is a long way of saying that there's not much reason to believe the nooner will be a particularly well-played game.

Neither team has any significant advantages in any category, and neither team is especially well-suited to take advantage of the other's weaknesses. Wake won each of the two regular season meetings, beating the 'Noles 74-57 (66 possessions) on January 20 in Cigarette City and 78-70 (72 possessions) on Valentine's Day in Tallahassee. The first game was more evenly-played than the score would indicate, with Wake Forest winning essentially because they just shot the ball a little better than Florida State. The second game once again saw the Deacons get hot, this time from outside, and hold off the Seminoles despite FSU taking a whopping 21 more field goals than the Deacons (FSU rebounded 20 of their 46 reboundable misses for a whopping 43.48 OR% in the game).

It should be noted that while both teams are projected to take and make a similar number of three-pointers in this game, Florida State shot 26 and 27 three pointers in the first two games (making only 15 of them), while Wake took 28 in the two games combined (and made 14). Those are completely out of line with what each team did in their other games, so I'd be surprised if the trend continues.

Game Previews: The Overshadowed

Let's be honest here: there's only one game that anybody outside of Atlanta, Chestnut Hill, College Park, Coral Gables, Tallahassee, and Winston-Salem really cares about tonight. It's a damn shame, too, because all three promise to be good games. I'm running short on time this evening, so I'll run a paragraph on each along with a link to the respective reports.

The closest of the three is the first game of the night, when Maryland travels to Chestnut Hill to take on the Boston College. Maryland has a small advantage on paper, but when the difference between two teams is 2/3 of a point over 74 possessions it's hard to call them a favorite to win.

Also tipping at 7:00 are Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. The two schools everybody used to get confused with one another when they were kids square off in a game whose winner will reach the halfway point of the ACC season at .500. Wake is just under a 2-point favorite, and they won 55% of the simulations.

A half hour later, Florida State and Miami will tip off before a crowd of dozens. Miami's advantage on the glass makes them a 7-point favorite, making this the biggest mismatch of the night.

Game Preview: Virginia Tech at N.C. State

Those of you reading this in a feed reader might need to click back to the blog to see the tables.

State's ability to get to the free throw line is the only thing that makes them even remotely functional at the offensive end of the floor. The Wolfpack are third-best in Division I at getting to the line, with just under 20% of their adjusted possessions ending in a trip to the charity stripe. (Incidentally, they're also 4th-best at keeping opponents off the line, with just over 10% of adjusted defensive possessions ending with a free throw.)

This game shapes up to be every bit as ugly as the marquee matchup tomorrow night promises to be attractive. Those of you who don't get ESPNU probably should count yourselves lucky.

Game Preview: Virginia at Virginia Tech

Why is this game being played right now? It's Groundhog Day, and these two in-state rivals will be finished with their season series by dinner time. Granted, this rivalry doesn't have the cache of Duke-Carolina or a history of memorable games, but these two have still been designated as Primary Partners by the league office. They should rightfully be playing each other in the last week of the season. It's bad enough that the league is still only playing a laughably unbalanced 16-game schedule, but to compound that mistake by lumping home-and-homes so close together is just ridiculous.

Game Preview: Maryland at Georgia Tech

Turnovers are the point of separation here. Georgia Tech does a decent job of taking care of the basketball, but Maryland has been uncharacteristically bad at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over this season. At the other end of the floor, the Terps have been giving away possessions like candy, ranking 248th in adjusted turnovers per possession. If the Terps can even out the turnover margin this shapes up as a tight game.

Game Preview: N.C. State at Duke

Those of you reading this in a feed reader might need to click back over to the blog to see the tables.

It's mismatch night in the ACC to close out the month of January: the two lowest-rated teams travel to the two highest-rated. How big of a mismatch is the Duke-State tilt? In the 10,000 trials, Duke won by 40 points more than twice as often as N.C. State won by any score in regulation (925 times to 421). With the potential blow out brewing, I'm just happy to be in an ACC market where Rathbun and Packer--say what you will about the guy, but he's great in a blowout--and the Raycom telecast will save me from two hours listening to Jay Bilas pretend to be objective while Mike Patrick heaps praise on each and every Duke player for each and every thing they do.

Game Preview: Boston College at North Carolina

Those of you reading this in a feed reader might need to click back over to the blog to see the tables.

This is the biggest ACC matchup that my system can find. BC doesn't grade out very well in the TAPE system--they've had some bad losses, and even in the games they win it seems they do just enough to barely get by--and they don't match up well with the Heels at all. It's also interesting to note that the Pythagorean method starts to break down at the extremes. Using an exponent of 8.5, most of the trials have lined up pretty well with our Greek friend, but an exponent closer to 11 is necessary for the games in which the two teams aren't very close. I'll have to look into that more later on.

Game Preview: Duke at Maryland

Those of you using a reader to view this might need to click back to the blog to see the tables.

This matchup of two outstanding defenses (Duke is #4 in the nation and Maryland #28) and two teams that like to play at a high pace (both are in the 80th percentile of Division I in terms of average pace) should make for a fun game to watch. Unfortunately for Maryland, Duke also has a top-25 offense while the Terps, um, don't. Even with the home advantage, the Devils are nearly seven point favorites here.

Any time Duke takes the court, especially against Maryland, officiating has the potential to become a story. Based on what each has done so far this season, free throws in tonight's game should be pretty even.

Game Preview: Georgia Tech at Virginia

Those using a reader will probably need to click over to the blog to see the tables.

Virginia poses a tougher matchup for Georgia Tech than the teams' respective rankings would indicate. Based purely on a log5 analysis of their respective TAPE, which is based on how teams would perform against an average Division I team, the 33rd-ranked Wreck should win a neutral-site game against the 79th-ranked Wahoos roughly 2/3 of the time. Instead, Virginia's strong outside shooting and willingness to shoot from outside match up very well with a Georgia Tech defense that tends to allow opponents to take outside shots in exchange for a strong interior defense. The result is that in a holistic simulation of a matchup between the two teams, Georgia Tech is only a 54% (1.3 point) favorite on a neutral court. That translates into a 4.3-point advantage for Virginia when the game's played inside the Basketball Jones.