While none of these three teams has posted their updated roster yet, I wanted to get them up. Clemson should once again be one of the top teams in the league. Duke is Duke, etc. Maryland has some patches to fill in the frontcourt. The next task, of course, is to assimilate all of the individual projections into team ones, and that's a bit trickier. I'm currently working on a few different ways of doing this, but I'm not in love with any of them.
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Duke. Show all posts
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Thursday, March 20, 2008
NCAA Preview: (15) Belmont vs. (2) Duke
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Game Preview: N.C. State at Duke
Those of you reading this in a feed reader might need to click back over to the blog to see the tables.
It's mismatch night in the ACC to close out the month of January: the two lowest-rated teams travel to the two highest-rated. How big of a mismatch is the Duke-State tilt? In the 10,000 trials, Duke won by 40 points more than twice as often as N.C. State won by any score in regulation (925 times to 421). With the potential blow out brewing, I'm just happy to be in an ACC market where Rathbun and Packer--say what you will about the guy, but he's great in a blowout--and the Raycom telecast will save me from two hours listening to Jay Bilas pretend to be objective while Mike Patrick heaps praise on each and every Duke player for each and every thing they do.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Game Preview: Duke at Maryland
Those of you using a reader to view this might need to click back to the blog to see the tables.
This matchup of two outstanding defenses (Duke is #4 in the nation and Maryland #28) and two teams that like to play at a high pace (both are in the 80th percentile of Division I in terms of average pace) should make for a fun game to watch. Unfortunately for Maryland, Duke also has a top-25 offense while the Terps, um, don't. Even with the home advantage, the Devils are nearly seven point favorites here.
Any time Duke takes the court, especially against Maryland, officiating has the potential to become a story. Based on what each has done so far this season, free throws in tonight's game should be pretty even.
This matchup of two outstanding defenses (Duke is #4 in the nation and Maryland #28) and two teams that like to play at a high pace (both are in the 80th percentile of Division I in terms of average pace) should make for a fun game to watch. Unfortunately for Maryland, Duke also has a top-25 offense while the Terps, um, don't. Even with the home advantage, the Devils are nearly seven point favorites here.
Any time Duke takes the court, especially against Maryland, officiating has the potential to become a story. Based on what each has done so far this season, free throws in tonight's game should be pretty even.
Friday, November 9, 2007
8. Duke
2007 ACC Record: 8-8, t-6th place
Projected 2008 Record: 7-9 (1066 PARTOBS*, .414 Raw W%)
Duke's 2008 schedule is neutral. Five of their eight games against the top of the conference will be played in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but that is offset by playing only one game each against the projected bottom three teams, and all of those games are on the road.
Projected Player Contributions:
It's become conventional wisdom that the Blue Devils will be better off without Josh McRoberts, but I'm not buying it. McRoberts was the best defensive player on a team that relied heavily on its defense to win games, and it's hard to see how the Devils will be able to make up for the 58 points McRoberts was worth defensively in the conference season.
With freshmen Kyle Singler and Taylor King likely to log significant minutes for the Devils, it's likely that Duke will try to make up most of that deficit on the offensive end of the floor. Whether Mike Krzyzewski elects to return to the up-tempo pace that Duke teams played at throughout most of the last decade or spends another year playing at a Big Ten pace, the pressure will be on the offense to improve its efficiency.
Duke's 2008 schedule is neutral. Five of their eight games against the top of the conference will be played in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but that is offset by playing only one game each against the projected bottom three teams, and all of those games are on the road.
Projected Player Contributions:
It's become conventional wisdom that the Blue Devils will be better off without Josh McRoberts, but I'm not buying it. McRoberts was the best defensive player on a team that relied heavily on its defense to win games, and it's hard to see how the Devils will be able to make up for the 58 points McRoberts was worth defensively in the conference season.
With freshmen Kyle Singler and Taylor King likely to log significant minutes for the Devils, it's likely that Duke will try to make up most of that deficit on the offensive end of the floor. Whether Mike Krzyzewski elects to return to the up-tempo pace that Duke teams played at throughout most of the last decade or spends another year playing at a Big Ten pace, the pressure will be on the offense to improve its efficiency.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Why Isn't This Blog Ever Updated?
Duke and Carolina's projections are ready. Virginia Tech and Maryland are coming tonight. Over the next couple weeks I'll be posting team capsules with educated guesses on actual playing time as well as hopefully some data on what we can expect out of all the teams defensively.
In other news, I haven't completely been wasting my time over the last two months. I've been working on some exciting (well, exciting in the most nerdy way possible) additions that I'll be making to the site once the season starts. I'll be publishing PAPER for all Division-I players, plus some team stats for all 341 teams. I might even take a shot at some sort of power ranking, but only if I can think of a way of doing it that nobody else is doing.
This is still going to be an ACC-centric site, though. Most of the commentary is going to be about ACC games, basically because those are the ones I really care about. To that end, I'll be using full play-by-play data, rather than just box score data, for as many ACC games as possible. This should result in a finer granularity of data than what I've been using in the past, and a whole lot of the guesswork I've been making should be eliminated. All but one of the ACC schools (Virginia Tech is the lone holdout) hosts a live game application, either CSTV's GameTracker or XOS's GameWatcher, and these make getting full PBP data really simple. The upshot is that I'll have the data for at least 88 of the 96 conference games, plus most non-con games as well.
In other news, I haven't completely been wasting my time over the last two months. I've been working on some exciting (well, exciting in the most nerdy way possible) additions that I'll be making to the site once the season starts. I'll be publishing PAPER for all Division-I players, plus some team stats for all 341 teams. I might even take a shot at some sort of power ranking, but only if I can think of a way of doing it that nobody else is doing.
This is still going to be an ACC-centric site, though. Most of the commentary is going to be about ACC games, basically because those are the ones I really care about. To that end, I'll be using full play-by-play data, rather than just box score data, for as many ACC games as possible. This should result in a finer granularity of data than what I've been using in the past, and a whole lot of the guesswork I've been making should be eliminated. All but one of the ACC schools (Virginia Tech is the lone holdout) hosts a live game application, either CSTV's GameTracker or XOS's GameWatcher, and these make getting full PBP data really simple. The upshot is that I'll have the data for at least 88 of the 96 conference games, plus most non-con games as well.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)