2009 Player Projections: Clemson, Duke, and Maryland

While none of these three teams has posted their updated roster yet, I wanted to get them up. Clemson should once again be one of the top teams in the league. Duke is Duke, etc. Maryland has some patches to fill in the frontcourt. The next task, of course, is to assimilate all of the individual projections into team ones, and that's a bit trickier. I'm currently working on a few different ways of doing this, but I'm not in love with any of them.

Game Preview: Clemson at Miami

Let's see if today goes better for the predictions than yesterday did. I found a glitch in the code that was overstating home court advantage by a factor of about two. Both of yesterday's games were still surprises, just not as big as they appeared given the numbers here yesterday.

Two of my favorite teams in this year's ACC square off in what looks to be one of the most evenly-matched games we'll see. Both Clemson and Miami have trouble shedding the "football school" label, and tend to be overlooked even when they have good teams. Choking out out of NCAA Tournament contention after a 17-0 start or losing three ACC games in a row after a promising beginning to a season don't help matters much. Even so, this game is worth watching.

Both these teams rebound the heck out of the basketball under normal circumstances, so they're likely to cancel each other out today. Whichever team is able to force turnovers to the greatest effect looks to come out on top today.

5. Clemson

2007 ACC Record: 7-9, t-8th Place
Projected 2008 Record: 9-7 (1215 PARTOBS*, .595 Raw W%)

For the second year in a row, Clemson gets the short end of the scheduling stick. With the maximum six games against the projected top three, and only one game against each of Virginia Tech and Wake Forest--both of those at home, no less, so the Tigers don't even have the opportunity to steal an easier road win--mean that Clemson finishes an average of .8 wins below what they would have with a neutral schedule. Those of you who believe in curses might want to look into this one.

Projected Player Contributions:

Clemson returns essentially the same team that they had last year, minus four-year starter Vernon Hamilton. Some are concerned about whether or not Cliff Hammonds will be able to effectively run the point for the Tigers in his absence. They shouldn't be. Even though Hammonds' turnover rate is higher than is normal for a point guard, his overall floor game is doubtlessly strong enough to lead this team. Hammonds had the highest offensive PAPER component in the league last year, and most of that was thanks to his high team component. Simply put, his teammates score more points when he's on the floor. Really, what else do you need from a point guard?

One more thing that I can't resist mentioning: Freshman point guard Terrence Oglesby (pictured here) joins fellow Clemson Tiger Khalil Greene on the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.

*The PARTOBS number next to the team's projected record uses the projected Points, Assists, Rebounds, Turnovers, Blocks, and Steals to arrive at a number that correlates pretty strongly with a team's overall and conference record. The order of the PARTOBS number correlates even more strongly with the order of finish. The predicted order of finish and number of conference wins will be based on that number.

Tiger Beat

Clemson's individual projections are ready. Duke or Maryland will be next (and it shouldn't take two weeks between postings this time).