Sunday, January 27, 2008

Game Preview: Georgia Tech at Virginia

Those using a reader will probably need to click over to the blog to see the tables.

Virginia poses a tougher matchup for Georgia Tech than the teams' respective rankings would indicate. Based purely on a log5 analysis of their respective TAPE, which is based on how teams would perform against an average Division I team, the 33rd-ranked Wreck should win a neutral-site game against the 79th-ranked Wahoos roughly 2/3 of the time. Instead, Virginia's strong outside shooting and willingness to shoot from outside match up very well with a Georgia Tech defense that tends to allow opponents to take outside shots in exchange for a strong interior defense. The result is that in a holistic simulation of a matchup between the two teams, Georgia Tech is only a 54% (1.3 point) favorite on a neutral court. That translates into a 4.3-point advantage for Virginia when the game's played inside the Basketball Jones.

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