2009 Player Projections: BC, FSU, and Miami

Quick first impressions:

• Boston College: Whatever defense the Eagles have ever played has been predicated on having a shot blocker under the basket to make up for the matadors on the perimeter. With no player on the roster taller than 6'8", Al Skinner is going to have to come up with a new strategy.
  
• Florida State: Toney Douglas is the star, but the season will ride on how well the six freshmen play.
• Miami: Why is it that whenever a team exceeds artificially low expectations one year they're always wildly overrated the next? The Hurricanes have a solid roster and a very good coach, but there's no way they're a top-10 team.
  

Tourney Preview: (6) Maryland vs. (11) Boston College

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The nightcap features the biggest mismatch of the day according to the oracle of TAPE. Maryland is slightly worse than average both offensively and defensively, scoring 1.034 and allowing 1.054 points per possession in conference play, while Boston College is just about dead average offensively (1.046 PPP) and horrible on the defensive side (1.114). The Eagles won the first meeting 81-78 (72 possessions) way back in the very first conference game of the year on December 9 in College Park, mostly thanks to BC attempting 41 free throws to Maryland's 17. Maryland evidently learned the lesson that it's hard to win when you send the opponent to the charity stripe on 27.4% of their possessions, as the Terps won the return game 70-65 (59 possessions) on February 6.

Looking at the numbers, it's apparent that while Maryland is definitely the better team, it's mostly due to being significantly better in just one area: making two-point baskets (and keeping the opponent from doing same, so I guess maybe that's two areas). BC's defense is completely reliant on a shotblocker cleaning up drives to the basket, and when they're not getting that (read: when Tyrelle Blair is either out of the game or otherwise occupied) things get ugly. Maryland's flex offense gets them better looks at two-point baskets than any team in the league. When strength meets weakness, things rarely go well for the weaker team. That said, a gameplan designed to take away the deuce might just leave the door open for an Eagle upset.

Game Previews: The Overshadowed

Let's be honest here: there's only one game that anybody outside of Atlanta, Chestnut Hill, College Park, Coral Gables, Tallahassee, and Winston-Salem really cares about tonight. It's a damn shame, too, because all three promise to be good games. I'm running short on time this evening, so I'll run a paragraph on each along with a link to the respective reports.

The closest of the three is the first game of the night, when Maryland travels to Chestnut Hill to take on the Boston College. Maryland has a small advantage on paper, but when the difference between two teams is 2/3 of a point over 74 possessions it's hard to call them a favorite to win.

Also tipping at 7:00 are Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. The two schools everybody used to get confused with one another when they were kids square off in a game whose winner will reach the halfway point of the ACC season at .500. Wake is just under a 2-point favorite, and they won 55% of the simulations.

A half hour later, Florida State and Miami will tip off before a crowd of dozens. Miami's advantage on the glass makes them a 7-point favorite, making this the biggest mismatch of the night.

Game Preview: Boston College at North Carolina

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This is the biggest ACC matchup that my system can find. BC doesn't grade out very well in the TAPE system--they've had some bad losses, and even in the games they win it seems they do just enough to barely get by--and they don't match up well with the Heels at all. It's also interesting to note that the Pythagorean method starts to break down at the extremes. Using an exponent of 8.5, most of the trials have lined up pretty well with our Greek friend, but an exponent closer to 11 is necessary for the games in which the two teams aren't very close. I'll have to look into that more later on.

Game Preview: VPI at BC

If you like watching Big Ten basketball, you'll love Virginia Tech at Boston College. Those of you who actually enjoy watching a well-played hoops game at anything more than a glacial pace, might want to just go ahead and skip this one.

9. Boston College

2007 ACC Record: 10-6, t-3rd place
Projected 2008 Record: 7-9 (1054 PARTOBS*, .398 Raw W%)

BC plays a remarkably neutral schedule in 2008. Their six games against the top four teams in the league are split evenly home and away. Four of the seven games against the middle of the league will be played on the road, but that leaves two of the three games aginst Virginia Tech and Wake Forest as highly probable wins in Conte Forum.

Projected Player Contributions:

Al Skinner has employed a very short bench in both of the seasons Boston College has spent in the ACC, and it will be interesting to see if he continues that trend with six new players joining the Eagles this year. Skinner seems to use players like Joe Torre uses relievers, and this much roster turnover could mean intense competition for playing time.

The most intriguing of those newcomers is Vermont transfer Joe Trapani. Trapani was a member of the America East all-freshman team in 2006, scoring 11.4 points per game while grabbing 4.4 rebounds for the Catamounts. If his adjusted numbers are to be believed (and I'm not sure they are--my system of adjusting numbers for transfer players needs some serious tinkering), Trapani could go a long way towards making up for what the Eagles lost when Jared Dudley's eligibility ran out.

*The PARTOBS number next to the team's projected record uses the projected Points, Assists, Rebounds, Turnovers, Blocks, and Steals to arrive at a number that correlates pretty strongly with a team's overall and conference record. The order of the PARTOBS number correlates even more strongly with the order of finish. The predicted order of finish and number of conference wins will be based on that number.

The Eagle Has Landed

Boston College's predictions are ready.

N.C. State Wake Forest is up next.