Wednesday, February 11, 2009

PAPER in Translation

All of the bugs are now worked out, and the national version of PAPER is up and should continue to be updated at least a couple times a week for the remainder of the season. It takes about 25-30 minutes to run the whole simulation and I haven't written code to automate it to run when I'm not around or awake, so until that happens it'll probably only be updated on Mondays and Fridays.

The column headers on the report are pretty self-explanatory, but there is a new feature, and it's actually what the report is sorted on: Wins Added. This represents the number of wins over the course of a 16-game conference season that the player would add to an average BCS-League team relative to a league-average player at the same position. So, for example, if you replaced a league-average power forward on a .500 BCS-League team with Blake Griffin for 33 minutes a game, that team would be expected to win 71% of its games against other BCS teams.

The ratings in the PAPER report are based on all games played between Division I teams. Just as in TAPE, each team and individual performance is translated from the actual statistics into a hypothetical performance against an average BCS team. The individual translations are now available for all players who have logged at least 10 minutes per game.

The translations report is sorted by a column marked PARTOBS, which is my preferred quick-and-dirty way of measuring performance. It is simply Points plus Assists plus Rebounds minus Turnovers plus half each of Blocks and Steals. While there's only a moderate correlation between PARTOBS and actual value--it's possible for players to run up gaudy counting stats while still doing their team more harm than good--there is a very strong correlation between PARTOBS and perceived value. Check out any league's all-conference team and it's a good bet that most if not all of the players selected are at the top of the conference's leaderboard. In any case, I sorted on PARTOBS because it's better than just points or rebounds.

Reading either of these reports in HTML form is kind of a drag, so feel free to download either PAPER (csv, xls, ods) or the Translations (csv, xls, ods) into your favorite spreadsheet software, where you can filter and sort to your heart's content.

The next item on the punch list is conference-only PAPER for each of the BCS leagues. If all goes according to plan I should have more on that by the early part of next week.

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