Friday, March 13, 2009

Tournament Preview: ACC Quarterfinals

Was it just me, or did it seem like it was a whole lot easier for the guys to make shots from the near side of the court (from the TV perspective) than it was from the far side? Since the seats behind the baskets don't run parallel to the the endline, the shooter's eye changes much more dramatically than it would anywhere else. Just another reason to hate the Georgia Dome.

On to the matchups:
North Carolina 85.8 - 73.8 Virginia Tech (74.1 possessions). Ty Lawson's potential absence is not included here. Splitting his minutes 60/40 between Frasor and Drew using the PAPER model drops Carolina from a .707 ACC team to a .585 ACC team, and drops Carolina's winning percentage in this particular game from 79% to 66%.

Florida State 68.9 - 61.7 Goergia Tech (72.3 possessions). I'm on the fence as to whether to classify Tech as the home team or treat this as a neutral site game. Of the three factors that make up the bulk of home court advantage--familiarity with the shooter's backdrop, supportive crowd, and sleeping in one's own bed--the Jackets only have one, so I'm sticking with the neutral site. If the game was in the Thrillerdome or I thought the crowd would be overwhelmingly for the Wreck, though, the Seminoles would only be 2½-point TAPE favorites.

Wake Forest 78.0 - Maryland 69.8 (75.2 possessions). That spread seems a little big to me. It's mostly based on Wake making more free throws than the Terps even attempt, so look for the officiating to be a story in this one.

Duke 80.0 - 68.6 Boston College (68.8 possessions). Al Skinner's teams just don't play defense. Mike Krzyzewski's teams do. This one is going to be a blowout.

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