Monday, November 7, 2011

Today's Games: 11/7/2011

TimeVisitorsExp. ScoreHomePoss.Conf.
7:00 PMWilliam & Mary67.1at71.8St. John's66.967.1%
8:00 PMEastern Kentucky57.2at75.7Mississippi St.65.095.0%
9:00 PMValparaiso63.0at80.0Arizona68.992.4%

It's the happiest day of the year. College basketball is back!

The projections for today's games are based completely on the preseason TAPE ratings. This is the first season for which I've run preseason ratings, and while I have tested the projections by dummy-testing them on the 2009 and 2010 seasons, I still consider them to be a work in progress. 

The current season's ratings aren't really good and reliable until the weekend after Thanksgiving, so the game predictions until then will be wholly or partially based on the preseason ratings. On or around December 4, the current season's ratings will take hold, and at that point the look of the daily projections will change. In addition to the score and pace projection, I'll also be including a full line score projection for each game, plus maybe some other goodies if I can work out the kinks.

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