Two Weeks Out

Two weeks from now, the college basketball season will be officially underway, and things are cranking up around here, too.

• I've built in a better reality check for the team projection model. Since the model builds each team from scratch based on the players on the roster, this can occasionally lead to some crazy things like, for example, Notre Dame having a projected defensive rebounding rate south of 60% and in the bottom five nationally. I had been handling this by setting upper and lower bounds based on historical data for all teams, but those parameters are now team specific. So now the system still thinks the Irish will have trouble rebounding, but it now has them projected to grab about 66% of their rebounds against high-level competition. Six or seven percent might not seem like a big difference, but it's most of the difference between a ranking in the mid-40s versus the mid-90s.
• The projection model for the upcoming season has moved from my inferred rosters to the actual rosters. This means that the projections are, for the most part, locked in. As injuries and suspensions are announced over the next couple weeks I'll run the model as necessary, but there shouldn't be too much movement other than those teams directly affected.
• I've flipped the switch to make 2014 the default season. This has broken some links, but I should have that fixed by the end of the weekend, along with some site formatting that's been broken for a while now.