Thursday, April 18, 2013

2013-2014 Projections Are Live

The first iteration of the preseason projections are up, and you can find them here. The basic methodology is the same as last year, but I've tweaked the player projections a little bit. Whereas last year I was basing the player projections on a broad pattern-based similarity model in which players were projected simply on their position and their conference, the new model actually uses a more sophisticated similar-player model to identify the 100 or so most statistically similar players and build each projection off of that data. I think it'll be a little bit more accurate, but there's no way to know for sure until the ball is tipped.

The projections will be updated periodically throughout the summer as players enter and exit programs. I'll try to keep on top of that as best as I can, but if you notice any glaring omissions from a team's roster, or anyone who shouldn't be there, please let me know and I'll fix it in the next projection run.

The current projections include all players who are eligible to return to their teams and who have not, to my knowledge, announced their intention to either leave the program or declared themselves eligible for the professional draft. I did do a run of the model before removing all the transfers and underclassmen going pro, though, and I've included that list below the break. It'll be interesting to see how the teams' projected fortunes change based on who is and isn't coming back.


RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
1 Louisville AmCon 15.77 74.33 (7) 58.34 (1) 67.55 (80) 100% 98% 90%
2 Florida SEC 15.69 74.67 (5) 58.58 (2) 62.85 (297) 100% 99% 82%
3 Indiana BigTen 15.41 76.84 (2) 62.02 (5) 66.59 (126) 99% 97% 39%
4 Ohio State BigTen 14.65 75.11 (4) 62.55 (10) 65.57 (171) 99% 92% 21%
5 Michigan BigTen 14.63 79.62 (1) 66.58 (51) 61.77 (320) 99% 96% 24%
6 Virginia Commonwealth A10 14.00 73.09 (9) 62.51 (8) 66.88 (108) 96% 83% 63%
7 Michigan State BigTen 13.77 70.97 (20) 60.87 (4) 64.80 (205) 93% 75% 9%
8 Georgetown BigEast 13.58 70.34 (30) 60.50 (3) 62.19 (312) 94% 76% 56%
9 Gonzaga WCC 13.41 75.21 (3) 65.81 (36) 65.93 (152) 93% 74% 80%
10 Arizona Pac12 13.30 71.33 (14) 62.41 (7) 65.75 (161) 90% 69% 51%
11 Wisconsin BigTen 13.12 73.93 (8) 64.64 (22) 57.50 (348) 92% 70% 4%
12 North Carolina ACC 12.96 72.17 (10) 64.29 (20) 72.72 (7) 93% 72% 29%
13 Syracuse ACC 12.79 70.06 (37) 62.26 (6) 65.12 (192) 90% 66% 23%
14 Kentucky SEC 12.51 70.74 (22) 63.72 (15) 66.29 (135) 93% 66% 8%
15 Iowa BigTen 12.39 70.25 (35) 63.53 (12) 68.15 (62) 83% 55% 2%
16 Maryland ACC 12.08 69.66 (43) 63.61 (14) 68.49 (49) 84% 53% 14%
17 Tennessee SEC 12.08 71.64 (13) 65.46 (33) 64.71 (210) 90% 58% 5%
18 Pittsburgh ACC 11.96 70.43 (26) 64.24 (19) 60.87 (335) 80% 47% 12%
19 Duke ACC 11.83 72.06 (11) 66.48 (46) 68.28 (56) 76% 44% 11%
20 Virginia ACC 11.55 69.53 (47) 64.15 (18) 58.74 (344) 77% 40% 7%
21 Saint Louis A10 11.52 70.38 (27) 65.32 (31) 63.12 (290) 79% 43% 19%
22 Oklahoma State Big12 11.50 69.65 (45) 64.68 (23) 65.94 (149) 76% 40% 27%
23 Arkansas SEC 11.46 74.40 (6) 69.64 (100) 69.68 (26) 80% 42% 3%
24 New Mexico MWC 11.39 70.89 (21) 66.04 (39) 65.60 (169) 66% 31% 42%
25 Marquette BigEast 11.13 71.80 (12) 67.60 (65) 67.65 (76) 69% 32% 14%
26 North Dakota State Summit 11.09 68.90 (56) 64.76 (25) 64.41 (222) 66% 31% 52%
27 Colorado Pac12 11.07 68.23 (66) 64.15 (17) 66.14 (143) 64% 29% 14%
28 Denver Summit 11.02 71.29 (15) 67.04 (57) 57.09 (351) 60% 28% 47%
29 Wichita State MVC 10.94 71.19 (16) 67.27 (58) 64.89 (202) 66% 29% 56%
30 UCLA Pac12 10.91 69.32 (49) 65.61 (35) 67.09 (101) 59% 29% 15%
31 Kansas Big12 10.72 69.91 (38) 66.56 (49) 67.91 (68) 64% 29% 18%
32 Alabama SEC 10.64 68.12 (68) 64.82 (26) 62.11 (314) 67% 27% 1%
33 Stanford Pac12 10.63 69.65 (44) 66.47 (45) 66.74 (116) 61% 23% 9%
34 Connecticut AmCon 10.58 69.68 (42) 66.51 (47) 64.15 (233) 60% 24% 5%
35 Southern Mississippi CUSA 10.55 71.08 (18) 67.92 (68) 64.01 (242) 59% 23% 40%
36 Louisiana Tech CUSA 10.51 67.63 (77) 64.75 (24) 68.53 (48) 57% 23% 38%
37 Minnesota BigTen 10.46 70.32 (31) 67.37 (59) 64.05 (240) 58% 22% 0%
38 Kansas State Big12 10.46 70.45 (25) 67.55 (64) 65.64 (168) 54% 21% 12%
39 Texas Big12 10.46 67.88 (72) 65.05 (28) 65.82 (155) 62% 24% 14%
40 Butler BigEast 10.36 67.30 (81) 64.63 (21) 63.93 (248) 51% 20% 8%
41 Baylor Big12 10.36 68.56 (59) 65.88 (38) 66.32 (130) 53% 21% 13%
42 Creighton BigEast 10.17 71.09 (17) 68.73 (80) 64.91 (200) 48% 16% 5%
43 Providence BigEast 10.14 68.27 (65) 66.09 (40) 68.21 (59) 54% 20% 7%
44 California Pac12 10.13 68.52 (61) 66.33 (44) 66.82 (114) 50% 18% 8%
45 Richmond A10 10.04 70.26 (34) 68.18 (71) 62.37 (308) 44% 16% 5%
46 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 9.88 64.18 (151) 62.53 (9) 69.11 (35) 44% 16% 24%
47 George Washington A10 9.83 66.92 (87) 65.33 (32) 64.65 (215) 40% 15% 5%
48 Northwestern State Sland 9.81 70.37 (28) 68.88 (86) 72.19 (9) 36% 14% 76%
49 Harvard Ivy 9.78 69.90 (39) 68.36 (75) 62.01 (315) 50% 15% 85%
50 Georgia SEC 9.71 66.38 (98) 64.96 (27) 61.84 (317) 40% 13% 0%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
51 Iowa State Big12 9.69 69.55 (46) 68.23 (72) 69.03 (36) 43% 15% 9%
52 Memphis AmCon 9.67 68.32 (64) 67.04 (56) 68.96 (37) 43% 12% 2%
53 Wright State Horiz 9.64 65.02 (127) 63.76 (16) 61.78 (319) 40% 11% 57%
54 Cincinnati AmCon 9.60 64.07 (155) 62.88 (11) 63.89 (250) 37% 11% 2%
55 North Carolina State ACC 9.55 71.05 (19) 69.99 (112) 67.51 (82) 42% 13% 1%
56 St. John's BigEast 9.49 67.95 (71) 67.01 (55) 66.84 (111) 40% 12% 4%
57 St. Mary's WCC 9.45 69.32 (50) 68.42 (76) 64.09 (239) 35% 10% 14%
58 Mississippi SEC 9.43 68.77 (57) 67.93 (69) 68.12 (63) 39% 11% 0%
59 Miami (FL) ACC 9.43 70.59 (23) 69.72 (103) 63.28 (284) 39% 9% 1%
60 Purdue BigTen 9.41 68.51 (62) 67.72 (66) 65.74 (163) 41% 11% 0%
61 Dayton A10 9.31 69.37 (48) 68.76 (82) 65.30 (189) 34% 9% 2%
62 Boise State MWC 9.28 70.31 (32) 69.75 (107) 65.80 (158) 33% 8% 14%
63 Illinois BigTen 9.16 66.59 (94) 66.27 (42) 65.42 (184) 34% 9% 0%
64 San Diego State MWC 9.14 65.54 (116) 65.26 (30) 64.93 (199) 29% 8% 13%
65 Texas A&M SEC 9.12 66.77 (90) 66.53 (48) 60.69 (336) 31% 7% 0%
66 West Virginia Big12 9.10 68.97 (54) 68.77 (83) 63.45 (276) 34% 7% 3%
67 Louisiana State SEC 9.06 67.02 (82) 66.90 (53) 66.73 (117) 33% 8% 0%
68 La Salle A10 9.00 70.29 (33) 70.30 (122) 69.13 (34) 31% 8% 2%
69 Xavier BigEast 8.98 68.67 (58) 68.71 (77) 64.61 (216) 29% 7% 2%
70 Villanova BigEast 8.90 67.32 (80) 67.51 (63) 67.10 (99) 29% 7% 2%
71 Massachusetts A10 8.89 69.22 (52) 69.43 (99) 71.23 (13) 30% 7% 1%
72 Indiana State MVC 8.85 66.39 (97) 66.68 (52) 64.79 (207) 28% 6% 20%
73 Oklahoma Big12 8.79 65.16 (125) 65.57 (34) 65.38 (185) 26% 6% 3%
74 Canisius MAAC 8.78 70.14 (36) 70.57 (128) 65.65 (166) 25% 8% 41%
75 Georgia Tech ACC 8.73 63.07 (187) 63.59 (13) 66.02 (146) 25% 6% 1%
76 Wake Forest ACC 8.55 65.01 (129) 65.86 (37) 68.63 (45) 22% 6% 1%
77 Oregon State Pac12 8.48 67.95 (70) 68.93 (89) 70.16 (22) 18% 4% 1%
78 Northern Iowa MVC 8.48 67.86 (73) 68.92 (88) 60.38 (338) 21% 4% 14%
79 Missouri SEC 8.41 69.83 (40) 70.98 (141) 68.38 (52) 21% 4% 0%
80 Middle Tennessee State CUSA 8.31 64.97 (131) 66.31 (43) 65.74 (162) 19% 4% 9%
81 Brigham Young WCC 8.18 67.63 (76) 69.17 (92) 72.79 (6) 18% 3% 5%
82 Florida Gulf Coast Asun 8.14 65.87 (109) 67.50 (62) 68.57 (47) 16% 3% 51%
83 Vanderbilt SEC 8.09 64.75 (139) 66.57 (50) 63.87 (252) 19% 3% 0%
84 Notre Dame ACC 8.07 70.35 (29) 72.27 (177) 61.32 (329) 16% 3% 0%
85 Boston College ACC 7.94 69.75 (41) 71.89 (167) 63.35 (280) 14% 2% 0%
86 St. Joseph's A10 7.86 67.01 (83) 69.31 (96) 63.53 (273) 17% 3% 1%
87 Vermont AmEast 7.84 66.89 (88) 69.22 (93) 62.82 (299) 11% 2% 45%
88 Texas-El Paso CUSA 7.81 62.90 (194) 65.22 (29) 62.92 (295) 14% 3% 6%
89 Southern California Pac12 7.61 63.35 (179) 66.10 (41) 62.87 (296) 11% 2% 1%
90 Belmont OVC 7.59 65.97 (106) 68.74 (81) 68.02 (66) 14% 2% 46%
91 George Mason A10 7.59 66.98 (84) 69.75 (106) 66.30 (132) 10% 1% 0%
92 Akron MAC 7.55 66.95 (85) 69.81 (109) 66.58 (127) 11% 1% 36%
93 Detroit Horiz 7.55 68.13 (67) 70.91 (138) 69.59 (28) 16% 4% 27%
94 Eastern Kentucky OVC 7.54 68.38 (63) 71.36 (149) 61.47 (326) 10% 1% 37%
95 Fresno State MWC 7.54 65.00 (130) 67.91 (67) 62.62 (303) 11% 1% 3%
96 Boston University Pat 7.49 66.93 (86) 69.96 (111) 63.65 (264) 9% 1% 49%
97 Illinois State MVC 7.44 69.09 (53) 72.23 (175) 65.48 (180) 12% 2% 7%
98 Iona MAAC 7.39 69.30 (51) 72.43 (184) 70.48 (20) 14% 2% 30%
99 Florida State ACC 7.35 67.51 (78) 70.74 (133) 67.31 (91) 9% 1% 0%
100 Oregon Pac12 7.35 63.74 (167) 66.92 (54) 68.21 (58) 10% 2% 1%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
101 Utah State MWC 7.27 70.47 (24) 74.08 (232) 61.69 (323) 7% 1% 2%
102 Washington Pac12 7.24 67.76 (74) 71.16 (144) 69.22 (32) 9% 1% 0%
103 Charleston Southern BigSou 7.23 66.82 (89) 70.29 (121) 67.71 (73) 8% 1% 58%
104 Mercer Asun 7.14 66.14 (101) 69.93 (110) 63.87 (253) 6% 1% 35%
105 Seton Hall BigEast 7.10 65.16 (124) 68.91 (87) 66.30 (133) 7% 1% 0%
106 Southern Methodist AmCon 6.98 66.45 (96) 70.65 (130) 60.19 (339) 7% 1% 0%
107 Western Michigan MAC 6.97 65.08 (126) 69.07 (90) 65.70 (165) 7% 1% 23%
108 Rutgers AmCon 6.96 65.64 (112) 69.72 (104) 64.44 (220) 7% 1% 0%
109 Davidson SoCon 6.95 64.86 (135) 68.82 (84) 66.85 (110) 10% 2% 51%
110 San Francisco WCC 6.91 67.96 (69) 72.08 (171) 67.87 (69) 5% 1% 1%
111 Wyoming MWC 6.85 66.00 (104) 70.39 (127) 61.50 (325) 7% 1% 2%
112 Green Bay Horiz 6.84 65.97 (107) 70.25 (120) 64.69 (213) 6% 1% 13%
113 New Mexico State WAC 6.69 65.23 (122) 69.72 (105) 67.84 (70) 6% 1% 66%
114 Charlotte CUSA 6.65 63.47 (176) 68.04 (70) 67.09 (102) 5% 1% 2%
115 South Florida AmCon 6.63 64.83 (136) 69.78 (108) 59.20 (343) 4% 1% 0%
116 Air Force MWC 6.61 65.88 (108) 70.82 (135) 61.27 (331) 4% 1% 1%
117 Tulsa CUSA 6.53 62.69 (202) 67.46 (61) 66.24 (136) 6% 1% 2%
118 Houston AmCon 6.44 68.90 (55) 73.95 (230) 67.59 (77) 3% 0% 0%
119 Toledo MAC 6.31 65.51 (117) 70.89 (137) 65.64 (167) 3% 0% 16%
120 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA 6.30 64.92 (132) 70.38 (126) 64.77 (208) 3% 0% 1%
121 Army Pat 6.30 67.47 (79) 72.84 (195) 68.36 (54) 3% 0% 29%
122 Utah Pac12 6.29 63.87 (160) 69.42 (98) 63.16 (287) 3% 0% 0%
123 Texas Tech Big12 6.24 66.66 (91) 72.10 (172) 67.51 (81) 3% 0% 0%
124 Stony Brook AmEast 6.21 63.50 (175) 69.27 (95) 62.28 (310) 4% 1% 32%
125 Drake MVC 6.12 68.54 (60) 74.34 (245) 66.83 (113) 2% 0% 1%
126 Missouri State MVC 6.10 65.50 (118) 71.53 (156) 61.18 (332) 2% 0% 1%
127 Florida International CUSA 6.09 65.36 (120) 71.15 (143) 67.24 (96) 3% 0% 1%
128 Buffalo MAC 5.99 64.06 (156) 70.02 (114) 66.30 (134) 3% 0% 12%
129 Niagara MAAC 5.91 67.71 (75) 73.87 (228) 68.66 (44) 2% 0% 7%
130 Penn State BigTen 5.88 64.43 (142) 70.85 (136) 62.34 (309) 2% 0% 0%
131 Cal Poly BigWest 5.87 66.48 (95) 73.18 (206) 58.42 (346) 2% 0% 24%
132 Drexel CAA 5.85 64.16 (154) 70.67 (131) 61.15 (334) 3% 1% 38%
133 Arizona State Pac12 5.80 65.68 (110) 72.31 (182) 63.45 (277) 2% 0% 0%
134 California-Irvine BigWest 5.78 62.04 (221) 68.34 (74) 68.60 (46) 2% 0% 25%
135 Manhattan MAAC 5.78 60.88 (245) 67.38 (60) 64.03 (241) 2% 0% 6%
136 Southern SWAC 5.70 64.17 (152) 70.98 (140) 64.15 (232) 2% 0% 64%
137 Elon SoCon 5.65 63.90 (158) 70.62 (129) 67.71 (74) 2% 0% 25%
138 Clemson ACC 5.58 62.59 (205) 69.69 (102) 62.76 (301) 1% 0% 0%
139 Arkansas-Little Rock SunBelt 5.56 64.22 (149) 71.17 (145) 65.54 (174) 2% 0% 27%
140 Montana BigSky 5.46 65.24 (121) 72.64 (191) 62.83 (298) 1% 0% 38%
141 California-Santa Barbara BigWest 5.46 63.79 (166) 71.22 (146) 63.37 (278) 1% 0% 19%
142 North Carolina Central MEAC 5.46 64.17 (153) 71.41 (151) 64.70 (212) 2% 0% 44%
143 Loyola Marymount WCC 5.40 64.40 (144) 71.79 (164) 65.80 (157) 1% 0% 0%
144 South Carolina-Upsate Asun 5.38 65.68 (111) 73.10 (205) 65.81 (156) 1% 0% 11%
145 Central Florida AmCon 5.35 66.64 (92) 74.28 (238) 64.39 (225) 1% 0% 0%
146 Western Kentucky SunBelt 5.34 64.22 (150) 71.63 (158) 67.59 (78) 1% 0% 23%
147 St. Bonaventure A10 5.33 65.23 (123) 72.85 (196) 63.97 (244) 4% 1% 0%
148 Wagner NEC 5.33 62.97 (191) 70.35 (124) 67.25 (95) 1% 0% 42%
149 Yale Ivy 5.33 63.32 (181) 70.77 (134) 65.10 (193) 1% 0% 8%
150 South Carolina SEC 5.29 64.88 (134) 72.50 (186) 65.47 (181) 1% 0% 0%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
151 Northeastern CAA 5.21 64.22 (147) 72.12 (173) 62.95 (294) 1% 0% 18%
152 DePaul BigEast 5.16 65.98 (105) 73.46 (215) 72.12 (10) 1% 0% 0%
153 Santa Clara WCC 5.15 66.33 (99) 74.26 (237) 66.71 (119) 1% 0% 0%
154 College of Charleston CAA 5.14 62.29 (212) 70.13 (116) 66.02 (145) 1% 0% 19%
155 Wofford SoCon 5.12 60.75 (250) 68.84 (85) 62.15 (313) 1% 0% 17%
156 Morehead State OVC 5.11 60.76 (249) 68.72 (78) 64.25 (229) 1% 0% 6%
157 Cal State Northridge BigWest 5.08 65.64 (113) 73.44 (214) 69.28 (31) 1% 0% 13%
158 Eastern Washington BigSky 5.07 65.58 (115) 73.62 (224) 67.18 (97) 1% 0% 24%
159 Nebraska BigTen 5.06 63.27 (183) 71.68 (159) 61.37 (328) 1% 0% 0%
160 Tulane CUSA 5.02 64.42 (143) 72.71 (194) 64.44 (221) 1% 0% 0%
161 Ohio MAC 5.02 64.43 (141) 72.60 (190) 67.42 (86) 1% 0% 5%
162 Weber State BigSky 5.00 63.06 (188) 71.24 (148) 64.48 (219) 1% 0% 23%
163 Albany AmEast 4.99 63.04 (189) 71.40 (150) 62.51 (305) 2% 0% 14%
164 Washington State Pac12 4.97 64.26 (145) 72.97 (200) 63.67 (263) 0% 0% 0%
165 Hawaii BigWest 4.94 64.79 (137) 73.04 (203) 69.40 (29) 1% 0% 11%
166 Auburn SEC 4.89 63.71 (168) 72.26 (176) 65.43 (182) 1% 0% 0%
167 Loyola (MD) Pat 4.85 64.67 (140) 73.41 (212) 63.59 (268) 1% 0% 10%
168 Northwestern BigTen 4.82 63.56 (172) 72.59 (189) 61.69 (322) 1% 0% 0%
169 Arkansas State SunBelt 4.71 62.38 (208) 71.44 (154) 63.52 (274) 1% 0% 14%
170 Rhode Island A10 4.67 62.72 (200) 71.69 (160) 65.12 (191) 1% 0% 0%
171 Evansville MVC 4.67 61.70 (228) 70.71 (132) 66.32 (131) 1% 0% 1%
172 Hartford AmEast 4.66 60.23 (269) 69.36 (97) 63.64 (265) 1% 0% 7%
173 Norfolk State MEAC 4.62 62.29 (211) 71.23 (147) 68.30 (55) 1% 0% 21%
174 Youngstown State Horiz 4.55 66.12 (103) 75.34 (269) 67.56 (79) 1% 0% 2%
175 Marist MAAC 4.54 63.12 (186) 72.22 (174) 67.46 (85) 1% 0% 2%
176 Seattle WAC 4.52 60.27 (266) 69.14 (91) 74.26 (2) 1% 0% 25%
177 William & Mary CAA 4.52 66.61 (93) 76.38 (295) 62.55 (304) 1% 0% 12%
178 Louisiana-Lafayette SunBelt 4.50 62.74 (198) 71.83 (165) 69.77 (25) 1% 0% 13%
179 San Diego WCC 4.49 63.39 (178) 72.96 (199) 63.98 (243) 0% 0% 0%
180 McNeese State Sland 4.49 62.71 (201) 72.29 (180) 63.94 (246) 0% 0% 7%
181 Colorado State MWC 4.48 63.01 (190) 72.55 (188) 64.80 (206) 1% 0% 0%
182 Portland WCC 4.46 61.41 (235) 70.95 (139) 65.18 (190) 0% 0% 0%
183 Mount St. Mary's NEC 4.40 64.79 (138) 74.53 (247) 64.49 (218) 0% 0% 25%
184 Bowling Green MAC 4.38 60.24 (268) 69.99 (113) 63.74 (258) 0% 0% 3%
185 Southeast Missouri OVC 4.38 64.24 (146) 73.71 (225) 66.93 (106) 1% 0% 5%
186 Princeton Ivy 4.32 61.52 (230) 71.78 (162) 61.30 (330) 1% 0% 3%
187 Temple AmCon 4.30 59.49 (286) 69.22 (94) 65.92 (153) 1% 0% 0%
188 North Carolina-Asheville BigSou 4.28 63.88 (159) 73.59 (221) 69.16 (33) 1% 0% 12%
189 Mississippi State SEC 4.27 59.75 (283) 69.64 (101) 66.62 (124) 0% 0% 0%
190 Loyola (IL) Horiz 4.27 64.22 (148) 74.58 (252) 61.73 (321) 0% 0% 1%
191 Lehigh Pat 4.25 63.64 (171) 73.57 (220) 68.89 (39) 0% 0% 5%
192 Ball State MAC 4.25 63.34 (180) 73.60 (222) 63.57 (269) 0% 0% 2%
193 Oakland Summit 4.24 66.13 (102) 75.93 (282) 70.94 (17) 0% 0% 0%
194 Towson CAA 4.23 62.82 (196) 73.06 (204) 64.39 (226) 0% 0% 7%
195 Murray State OVC 4.22 63.84 (163) 74.16 (233) 64.38 (227) 1% 0% 3%
196 Dartmouth Ivy 4.22 61.33 (238) 71.55 (157) 63.72 (261) 0% 0% 2%
197 Oral Roberts Sland 4.20 63.85 (162) 74.01 (231) 64.89 (201) 0% 0% 5%
198 Gardner-Webb BigSou 4.20 61.95 (222) 72.38 (183) 63.31 (281) 0% 0% 10%
199 Pennsylvania Ivy 4.20 61.47 (234) 71.75 (161) 63.97 (245) 0% 0% 1%
200 Sam Houston State Sland 4.18 59.78 (282) 70.14 (117) 63.16 (288) 0% 0% 5%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
201 Caliornia-Davis BigWest 4.16 63.97 (157) 74.24 (236) 66.47 (128) 0% 0% 5%
202 Georgia State SunBelt 4.16 66.25 (100) 76.92 (306) 63.63 (266) 0% 0% 8%
203 Duquesne A10 4.14 62.88 (195) 72.99 (201) 70.09 (23) 0% 0% 0%
204 Radford BigSou 4.02 60.61 (258) 71.00 (142) 66.64 (122) 0% 0% 8%
205 Stephen F. Austin Sland 4.01 59.18 (291) 70.35 (125) 58.51 (345) 0% 0% 6%
206 Fairfield MAAC 3.97 57.57 (317) 68.30 (73) 63.27 (286) 1% 0% 1%
207 Nevada MWC 3.95 63.50 (174) 74.28 (239) 66.42 (129) 0% 0% 0%
208 Kent State MAC 3.90 65.36 (119) 76.31 (292) 66.95 (104) 0% 0% 1%
209 Hampton MEAC 3.90 58.24 (306) 68.72 (79) 68.36 (53) 1% 0% 18%
210 Cleveland State Horiz 3.90 61.50 (231) 72.46 (185) 64.84 (204) 0% 0% 0%
211 Central Michigan MAC 3.90 65.02 (128) 76.28 (291) 64.24 (230) 0% 0% 1%
212 South Alabama SunBelt 3.89 62.63 (204) 73.53 (219) 66.93 (105) 0% 0% 7%
213 Texas-Arlington SunBelt 3.88 60.73 (251) 71.49 (155) 68.72 (42) 0% 0% 8%
214 Bucknell Pat 3.87 60.82 (247) 71.93 (168) 63.57 (270) 0% 0% 3%
215 Western Carolina SoCon 3.74 63.66 (170) 74.89 (260) 67.32 (88) 0% 0% 5%
216 Robert Morris NEC 3.74 63.20 (185) 74.88 (259) 63.89 (251) 0% 0% 11%
217 Old Dominion CUSA 3.73 62.38 (207) 73.90 (229) 64.09 (238) 0% 0% 0%
218 Fordham A10 3.73 63.22 (184) 74.53 (248) 67.68 (75) 0% 0% 0%
219 Pacific WCC 3.73 60.44 (262) 72.28 (178) 60.58 (337) 0% 0% 0%
220 Columbia Ivy 3.71 60.64 (257) 72.29 (179) 63.09 (292) 0% 0% 1%
221 Navy Pat 3.67 61.87 (225) 73.77 (226) 63.28 (283) 0% 0% 1%
222 Miami (OH) MAC 3.66 62.30 (210) 74.24 (235) 61.94 (316) 0% 0% 1%
223 High Point BigSou 3.64 62.73 (199) 74.44 (246) 64.97 (198) 0% 0% 6%
224 Bradley MVC 3.59 62.95 (192) 74.69 (254) 67.04 (103) 0% 0% 0%
225 Delaware CAA 3.57 62.94 (193) 74.81 (258) 66.08 (144) 0% 0% 4%
226 Morgan State MEAC 3.56 61.83 (227) 73.47 (216) 66.79 (115) 0% 0% 11%
227 North Dakota BigSky 3.55 60.95 (242) 72.68 (193) 66.60 (125) 0% 0% 6%
228 Eastern Michigan MAC 3.52 59.86 (278) 72.31 (181) 61.40 (327) 0% 0% 1%
229 IPFW Summit 3.51 62.27 (214) 74.22 (234) 66.64 (121) 0% 0% 0%
230 Texas Christian Big12 3.51 59.99 (273) 71.98 (169) 65.09 (194) 0% 0% 0%
231 Pepperdine WCC 3.51 60.10 (270) 72.52 (187) 63.09 (291) 0% 0% 0%
232 Texas Southern SWAC 3.51 63.86 (161) 76.12 (287) 64.70 (211) 0% 0% 24%
233 Illinois-Chicago Horiz 3.50 61.34 (237) 73.61 (223) 63.75 (256) 0% 0% 0%
234 Florida Atlantic CUSA 3.48 59.78 (281) 71.88 (166) 63.55 (271) 0% 0% 0%
235 Quinnipiac MAAC 3.47 62.36 (209) 74.29 (240) 66.72 (118) 0% 0% 11%
236 N.J.I.T. Ind 3.46 59.95 (275) 72.04 (170) 65.31 (188) 0% 0% 0%
237 Stetson Asun 3.45 65.61 (114) 77.69 (317) 68.71 (43) 0% 0% 1%
238 North Florida Asun 3.40 59.32 (289) 71.43 (153) 66.20 (141) 0% 0% 1%
239 Northern Colorado BigSky 3.38 63.69 (169) 76.17 (288) 66.24 (137) 0% 0% 5%
240 Rider MAAC 3.37 58.17 (308) 70.23 (119) 67.95 (67) 0% 0% 0%
241 North Texas CUSA 3.36 60.53 (260) 72.65 (192) 67.49 (83) 0% 0% 0%
242 Virginia Tech ACC 3.31 61.49 (232) 74.33 (242) 64.20 (231) 0% 0% 0%
243 Northern Kentucky OVC 3.24 59.79 (280) 73.47 (217) 57.37 (350) 0% 0% 1%
244 Valparaiso Horiz 3.18 57.26 (321) 70.11 (115) 65.09 (195) 0% 0% 1%
245 Sacred Heart NEC 3.18 63.44 (177) 76.34 (293) 66.64 (123) 0% 0% 9%
246 Samford SoCon 3.18 62.05 (220) 75.63 (274) 59.90 (340) 0% 0% 1%
247 Bryant NEC 3.18 63.81 (165) 76.95 (307) 65.59 (170) 0% 0% 8%
248 Marshall CUSA 3.17 63.52 (173) 76.64 (299) 66.92 (107) 0% 0% 0%
249 Long Beach State BigWest 3.16 62.16 (217) 75.05 (263) 68.08 (64) 0% 0% 1%
250 Chicago State WAC 3.15 59.11 (293) 71.78 (163) 70.08 (24) 0% 0% 5%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
251 Coastal Carolina BigSou 3.13 60.04 (272) 73.36 (211) 64.67 (214) 0% 0% 3%
252 Colgate Pat 3.12 62.09 (218) 75.09 (265) 66.23 (138) 0% 0% 1%
253 Eastern Illinois OVC 3.05 61.48 (233) 75.33 (268) 61.18 (333) 0% 0% 1%
254 East Carolina CUSA 2.98 60.25 (267) 73.86 (227) 66.22 (139) 0% 0% 0%
255 South Dakota State Summit 2.94 60.70 (254) 74.60 (253) 65.36 (187) 0% 0% 0%
256 Cal State Bakersfield WAC 2.93 62.21 (216) 75.88 (280) 66.64 (120) 0% 0% 4%
257 California-Riverside BigWest 2.92 57.48 (318) 71.41 (152) 62.96 (293) 0% 0% 1%
258 East Tennessee State Asun 2.88 61.86 (226) 76.11 (286) 64.35 (228) 0% 0% 0%
259 Northern Illinois MAC 2.87 56.33 (333) 70.31 (123) 63.86 (255) 0% 0% 0%
260 Chattanooga SoCon 2.84 62.27 (213) 76.20 (289) 68.81 (40) 0% 0% 1%
261 St. Francis (NY) NEC 2.83 61.63 (229) 75.52 (272) 67.41 (87) 0% 0% 4%
262 Southern Illinois MVC 2.81 60.90 (244) 75.10 (266) 63.72 (260) 0% 0% 0%
263 Austin Peay OVC 2.80 63.82 (164) 77.86 (319) 68.39 (51) 0% 0% 0%
264 Texas A&M Corpus Christi Sland 2.73 61.91 (224) 76.59 (298) 63.61 (267) 0% 0% 0%
265 James Madison CAA 2.69 59.02 (295) 73.52 (218) 65.79 (159) 0% 0% 2%
266 Hofstra CAA 2.68 58.67 (299) 73.23 (208) 65.06 (196) 0% 0% 1%
267 Montana State BigSky 2.65 61.94 (223) 76.67 (300) 65.51 (179) 0% 0% 1%
268 Savannah State MEAC 2.64 55.26 (338) 70.19 (118) 62.49 (307) 0% 0% 2%
269 American Pat 2.62 59.86 (277) 75.59 (273) 59.74 (341) 0% 0% 0%
270 New Hampshire AmEast 2.53 59.02 (294) 74.53 (249) 62.80 (300) 0% 0% 0%
271 Lipscomb Asun 2.48 61.19 (240) 75.86 (279) 70.31 (21) 0% 0% 0%
272 Tennessee Tech OVC 2.47 60.77 (248) 75.95 (284) 68.18 (60) 0% 0% 0%
273 Winthrop BigSou 2.47 58.61 (302) 74.34 (244) 61.84 (318) 0% 0% 1%
274 Liberty BigSou 2.45 63.30 (182) 79.08 (341) 64.54 (217) 0% 0% 0%
275 Campbell BigSou 2.39 61.39 (236) 76.75 (303) 65.94 (150) 0% 0% 1%
276 Holy Cross Pat 2.39 58.65 (300) 74.33 (243) 64.12 (237) 0% 0% 0%
277 Lafayette Pat 2.35 61.26 (239) 77.11 (308) 65.56 (172) 0% 0% 0%
278 Alcorn State SWAC 2.34 57.99 (310) 72.89 (198) 71.16 (14) 0% 0% 5%
279 Maine AmEast 2.33 60.70 (255) 76.24 (290) 67.30 (93) 0% 0% 0%
280 South Dakota Summit 2.33 62.52 (206) 78.03 (327) 69.63 (27) 0% 0% 0%
281 Tennessee State OVC 2.33 60.32 (264) 76.00 (285) 66.01 (147) 0% 0% 0%
282 Georgia Southern SoCon 2.31 58.68 (298) 74.58 (251) 64.39 (224) 0% 0% 0%
283 Jackson State SWAC 2.27 59.14 (292) 75.06 (264) 63.74 (257) 0% 0% 3%
284 Nebraska-Omaha Summit 2.22 64.89 (133) 80.33 (345) 72.25 (8) 0% 0% 0%
285 Cornell Ivy 2.22 58.72 (297) 74.70 (255) 67.47 (84) 0% 0% 0%
286 San Jose State MWC 2.19 57.09 (322) 73.24 (209) 65.71 (164) 0% 0% 0%
287 Louisiana-Monroe SunBelt 2.18 60.05 (271) 76.81 (304) 63.48 (275) 0% 0% 0%
288 Northern Arizona BigSky 2.17 59.68 (284) 75.77 (277) 65.93 (151) 0% 0% 1%
289 North Carolina-Greensboro SoCon 2.13 59.25 (290) 75.05 (262) 71.83 (11) 0% 0% 0%
290 Brown Ivy 2.12 56.64 (329) 72.99 (202) 65.77 (160) 0% 0% 0%
291 Monmouth MAAC 2.11 58.23 (307) 74.74 (256) 67.10 (100) 0% 0% 1%
292 Texas State SunBelt 2.11 62.26 (215) 77.99 (325) 73.36 (4) 0% 0% 0%
293 Portland State BigSky 2.11 62.07 (219) 78.39 (334) 65.98 (148) 0% 0% 1%
294 Howard MEAC 2.06 56.42 (331) 73.21 (207) 64.12 (236) 0% 0% 1%
295 Central Connecticut State NEC 2.03 60.72 (253) 77.47 (314) 68.02 (65) 0% 0% 1%
296 Coppin State MEAC 2.03 57.99 (311) 74.58 (250) 68.94 (38) 0% 0% 1%
297 Cal State Fullerton BigWest 1.98 59.93 (276) 76.57 (297) 69.31 (30) 0% 0% 0%
298 St. Peter's MAAC 1.97 56.14 (334) 73.43 (213) 63.73 (259) 0% 0% 0%
299 Western Illinois Summit 1.97 54.98 (339) 72.86 (197) 57.50 (349) 0% 0% 0%
300 IUPUI Summit 1.96 60.57 (259) 77.98 (324) 63.70 (262) 0% 0% 0%
RANK TEAM CONF. TAPE OFFENSE (RANK) DEFENSE (RANK) PACE (RANK) At Large Top 25 Win Conf.
301 Jacksonville State OVC 1.95 59.64 (285) 77.42 (313) 61.57 (324) 0% 0% 0%
302 Central Arkansas Sland 1.95 62.68 (203) 79.00 (338) 73.04 (5) 0% 0% 0%
303 Rice CUSA 1.93 60.90 (243) 78.53 (335) 64.41 (223) 0% 0% 0%
304 Jacksonville Asun 1.85 58.34 (304) 75.65 (275) 67.77 (72) 0% 0% 0%
305 Idaho BigSky 1.81 60.44 (263) 78.94 (337) 62.70 (302) 0% 0% 0%
306 Appalachian State SoCon 1.80 60.64 (256) 78.15 (329) 66.84 (112) 0% 0% 0%
307 Idaho State BigSky 1.79 58.15 (309) 76.69 (302) 62.27 (311) 0% 0% 0%
308 Houston Baptist Sland 1.77 57.39 (320) 74.30 (241) 70.88 (18) 0% 0% 0%
309 North Carolina A&T MEAC 1.74 57.90 (314) 75.79 (278) 68.18 (61) 0% 0% 2%
310 Tennessee-Martin OVC 1.72 59.32 (288) 77.20 (309) 67.28 (94) 0% 0% 0%
311 Delaware State MEAC 1.71 59.96 (274) 79.52 (342) 58.41 (347) 0% 0% 0%
312 Sacramento State BigSky 1.71 59.46 (287) 78.32 (333) 63.28 (285) 0% 0% 0%
313 Milwaukee Horiz 1.69 56.88 (326) 75.35 (270) 65.56 (173) 0% 0% 0%
314 Maryland-Eastern Shore MEAC 1.68 60.72 (252) 79.05 (339) 67.32 (89) 0% 0% 0%
315 Siena MAAC 1.62 57.76 (315) 76.87 (305) 65.37 (186) 0% 0% 0%
316 St. Francis (PA) NEC 1.61 58.30 (305) 77.50 (315) 63.29 (282) 0% 0% 0%
317 Presbyterian BigSou 1.60 60.46 (261) 80.30 (344) 59.33 (342) 0% 0% 0%
318 SIU-Edwardsville OVC 1.56 57.91 (313) 76.56 (296) 67.79 (71) 0% 0% 0%
319 North Carolina-Wilmington CAA 1.56 58.99 (296) 78.07 (328) 64.87 (203) 0% 0% 0%
320 Mississippi Valley SWAC 1.52 58.52 (303) 76.68 (301) 71.44 (12) 0% 0% 1%
321 Prairie View A&M SWAC 1.43 54.36 (341) 73.33 (210) 68.47 (50) 0% 0% 2%
322 Kennesaw State Asun 1.43 57.44 (319) 77.24 (310) 63.36 (279) 0% 0% 0%
323 Nicholls State Sland 1.43 58.65 (301) 78.53 (336) 63.86 (254) 0% 0% 0%
324 Texas-San Antonio CUSA 1.40 55.36 (337) 75.29 (267) 65.86 (154) 0% 0% 0%
325 Utah Valley State WAC 1.40 60.30 (265) 80.54 (347) 64.98 (197) 0% 0% 0%
326 Lamar Sland 1.36 56.09 (335) 75.04 (261) 70.68 (19) 0% 0% 0%
327 Maryland-Baltimore Co. AmEast 1.35 57.96 (312) 77.26 (311) 68.27 (57) 0% 0% 0%
328 Missouri-Kansas City WAC 1.30 56.87 (327) 77.34 (312) 63.93 (247) 0% 0% 0%
329 Furman SoCon 1.29 56.95 (325) 77.81 (318) 63.53 (272) 0% 0% 0%
330 Florida A&M MEAC 1.28 55.91 (336) 75.72 (276) 68.80 (41) 0% 0% 0%
331 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC 1.28 54.53 (340) 74.80 (257) 66.86 (109) 0% 0% 1%
332 Alabama State SWAC 1.26 56.97 (324) 77.68 (316) 64.77 (209) 0% 0% 1%
333 Troy SunBelt 1.25 56.99 (323) 77.89 (320) 66.21 (140) 0% 0% 0%
334 Longwood BigSou 1.25 59.80 (279) 79.54 (343) 71.13 (16) 0% 0% 0%
335 Virginia Military BigSou 1.21 62.75 (197) 83.10 (349) 74.41 (1) 0% 0% 0%
336 Southeast Louisiana Sland 1.10 56.34 (332) 77.91 (321) 64.13 (234) 0% 0% 0%
337 Southern Utah Summit 1.07 54.35 (342) 75.39 (271) 66.16 (142) 0% 0% 0%
338 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 1.07 57.63 (316) 79.07 (340) 67.31 (92) 0% 0% 0%
339 Citadel SoCon 1.05 61.18 (241) 84.05 (350) 63.12 (289) 0% 0% 0%
340 Long Island NEC 1.05 60.85 (246) 81.92 (348) 73.73 (3) 0% 0% 0%
341 Alabama A&M SWAC 1.02 56.57 (330) 77.98 (323) 67.31 (90) 0% 0% 0%
342 Bethune-Cookman MEAC 0.85 56.75 (328) 80.33 (346) 62.50 (306) 0% 0% 0%
343 Texas Pan American WAC 0.85 52.77 (344) 75.89 (281) 64.12 (235) 0% 0% 0%
344 Binghamton AmEast 0.79 52.74 (345) 76.35 (294) 63.90 (249) 0% 0% 0%
345 South Carolina State MEAC 0.72 53.73 (343) 78.01 (326) 67.17 (98) 0% 0% 0%
346 Grand Canyon WAC 0.60 52.66 (346) 77.97 (322) 65.53 (175) 0% 0% 0%
347 Incarnate Word Sland 0.56 52.43 (347) 78.19 (330) 65.53 (175) 0% 0% 0%
347 Abilene Christian Sland 0.56 52.43 (347) 78.19 (330) 65.53 (175) 0% 0% 0%
347 Massachusetts-Lowell AmEast 0.56 52.43 (347) 78.19 (330) 65.53 (175) 0% 0% 0%
350 New Orleans Sland 0.54 51.45 (350) 75.95 (283) 71.15 (15) 0% 0% 0%
351 Grambling State SWAC 0.14 51.43 (351) 85.42 (351) 65.42 (183) 0% 0% 0%


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