2013-2014 Projections Are Live

The first iteration of the preseason projections are up, and you can find them here. The basic methodology is the same as last year, but I've tweaked the player projections a little bit. Whereas last year I was basing the player projections on a broad pattern-based similarity model in which players were projected simply on their position and their conference, the new model actually uses a more sophisticated similar-player model to identify the 100 or so most statistically similar players and build each projection off of that data. I think it'll be a little bit more accurate, but there's no way to know for sure until the ball is tipped.

The projections will be updated periodically throughout the summer as players enter and exit programs. I'll try to keep on top of that as best as I can, but if you notice any glaring omissions from a team's roster, or anyone who shouldn't be there, please let me know and I'll fix it in the next projection run.

The current projections include all players who are eligible to return to their teams and who have not, to my knowledge, announced their intention to either leave the program or declared themselves eligible for the professional draft. I did do a run of the model before removing all the transfers and underclassmen going pro, though, and I've included that list below the break. It'll be interesting to see how the teams' projected fortunes change based on who is and isn't coming back.