Tournament Preview: Big XII Quarterfinals

The Big Twelve needs to get some consistency on the Arabic vs. Roman numerals thing. Everywhere you look it's something different. I'll stick with the Roman numberals, pretension be damned, since there are so few opportunities outside of Super Bowls and movie copyright dates to use them. I watched a little bit of the afternoon games yesterday (turns out my ISP offers ESPN360...who knew?) and the announcers were some kind of horrible. I know it was just a regional broadcast and all, but, really, Big XII, this is the best you can offer?

In today's action: TAPE sees Kansas as a 7¼-point favorite over Baylor (76.7 to 69.4 in 69.3 possessions). Baylor needs to turn the Jayhawks over a bunch and get super-hot from three to have a chance.

Texas is a mere ¾-point favorite over Kansas State (68.8 to 68.1 in 67.9 possessions). Look for lots of second-chance points in this game. Both teams rank in the top ten in the country in terms of adjusted offensive rebounding percentage, and each is completely ordinary on the defensive glass.

TAPE likes Oklahoma by 2¼ over their in-state rivals (81.7 to 79.3 in 72.5 possessions). Like offense? This is the game of the day for you. This game is the anti-Big Ten.

Missouri gets the biggest mismatch of the day, a 14½-point spread over Texas Tech (89.6 to 75.1 in 78.3(!) possessions). Was Texas A&M on the bubble? They're not anymore.

Tournament Overview: Big XII

Can't see the table? Click here.

Despite being a slight underdog in a potential head-to-head matchup in the conference finals, Missouri has a better chance of winning the championship than does Kansas. How's that possible? The Tigers match up much better against their five other possible finals opponents--the ones they'd match up with 57% of the time--than do the Jayhawks.

In Wednesday's first round games TAPE likes Nebraska over Baylor by less than a point (65.3 to 64.5 in 64.7 possessions). This matchup is about as even as it gets, with the Bears holding slight edges in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the line but giving it all back with turnovers.

Colorado-Texas is the biggest mismatch in the first round of any BCS conference tournament. TAPE likes the Longhorns to win 83.3% of the time by a margin of nearly 13 points (70 to 57.1 in 62.6 possessions) while dominating every facet of the game.

Travis Ford's resurgent Cowboys are 10-point TAPE favorites over Iowa State (77.1 to 67.3 in 69.5 possessions). Fun fact: Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair's offensive rebound rate (23.7%) is almost as high as Oklahoma State's (26.8%) and is higher than Iowa State's (23.0%).

The nightcap could turn into a free throw exhibition for the Aggies. A&M went to the line almost 26 times a game in conference play, and the Red Raiders' opponents averaged 28 free throws per game. TAPE thinks A&M will shoot 29 free throws--but make just 20 of them--on their way to a 6-point victory (77.4 to 71.2 in 70.3 possessions).

The table of all possible matchups: