Tournament Overview: Big Ten

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In honor of the Big Ten, I'm going to be walking around the apartment for 25 seconds before hurriedly typing each sentence in this post.

They say eight Big Ten teams might make the field of 65. That should make eight first- or second-round opponents very happy.

When Ed Hightower, Ted Hillary, Jim Burr, Rick Hartzell, and TV-Teddy Valentine all work at least a dozen conference games for you, maybe you ought to think about hiring a new Director of Officials.

I had another point ready to go, but it was dislodged by a Big Slow White Guy. On to the predictions.

Northwestern's expected margin of victory is less than ¼ point over Minnesota in the opener (61.1 to 60.9 in 60.8 possessions).

Michigan are 2½-point favorites over Iowa in the second game of the day (61 to 58.5 in 56.2 mind-numbing possessions). The Wolverines are one of the most overrated teams in the country; it's amazing how much weight is given to wins over UCLA and Duke that happened before the college football regular season was over.

Penn State should beat Indiana by 9 points (70.3 to 61.2 in 63.4 possessions).

Here's the table of all possible matchups:

Tournament Overview: Pac-10

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I wonder if N.C. State fans have started to reassess their position on Herb Sendek yet. After just three seasons in the desert, his Sun Devils run the fourth-most efficient offense in the nation and have a top-25 defense. Meanwhile, Sidney Lowe's Wolfpack will be wearing their red uniforms in the ACC Tournament's opening round for the third year in a row.

In tonight's first game, TAPE likes Stanford over Oregon State by 6½ points (68.9 to 62.4 in 61.2 possessions). Both of these teams have overachieved this season, but while Craig Robinson has been doing it mostly with smoke and Mirrors, Johnny Dawkins' Stanford team actually comes pretty close to being a good team.

After the overachievers clear the deck, Oregon takes on Washington State in a battle of underachieving teams. The Cougars looked like a serious contender for the conference title in December, but they've been treading water in a diluted Pac-10 this year. Still, they're 10¼-point favorites against the Ducks (65.8 to 55.5 in 61.3 possessions).

Here's the Pac-10 table of probabilities:

Tournament Overview: Big XII

Can't see the table? Click here.

Despite being a slight underdog in a potential head-to-head matchup in the conference finals, Missouri has a better chance of winning the championship than does Kansas. How's that possible? The Tigers match up much better against their five other possible finals opponents--the ones they'd match up with 57% of the time--than do the Jayhawks.

In Wednesday's first round games TAPE likes Nebraska over Baylor by less than a point (65.3 to 64.5 in 64.7 possessions). This matchup is about as even as it gets, with the Bears holding slight edges in shooting, rebounding, and getting to the line but giving it all back with turnovers.

Colorado-Texas is the biggest mismatch in the first round of any BCS conference tournament. TAPE likes the Longhorns to win 83.3% of the time by a margin of nearly 13 points (70 to 57.1 in 62.6 possessions) while dominating every facet of the game.

Travis Ford's resurgent Cowboys are 10-point TAPE favorites over Iowa State (77.1 to 67.3 in 69.5 possessions). Fun fact: Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair's offensive rebound rate (23.7%) is almost as high as Oklahoma State's (26.8%) and is higher than Iowa State's (23.0%).

The nightcap could turn into a free throw exhibition for the Aggies. A&M went to the line almost 26 times a game in conference play, and the Red Raiders' opponents averaged 28 free throws per game. TAPE thinks A&M will shoot 29 free throws--but make just 20 of them--on their way to a 6-point victory (77.4 to 71.2 in 70.3 possessions).

The table of all possible matchups:

Tournament Preview: Big East

The colossal clusterfuck that is the Big East Tournament is underway in Madison Square Garden, and there have already been upsets in the first two games. While both are surprises, neither is especially extraordinary. TAPE had Cincinnati pegged as an 11.5-point favorite over DePaul, but still gave the Blue Demons a 1 in 5 chance at the upset. St. John's, in what is essentially a home game, had a better than 1 in 4 chance of knocking off the Hoyas. In any case, this should end any NCAA talk for either Cincinnati or Georgetown. In the evening session, TAPE likes Notre Dame by 7 over Rutgers (73.8 to 66.6) and Seton Hall by 4 over South Florida (67.5 to 63.1) in the nightcap.

The pre-tournament odds looked like this (the number in each column represents the team's odds of playing in that round; the number in the far-right colum indicates the team's chances of winning the conference championship):

Based on the following table of matchups:

NIT Probabilities According to TAPE

Just for the hell of it, I've computed each team's chances of winning the NIT using TAPE matchups. Not surprisingly, the advantage of playing the first three rounds on their home courts gives each of the #1 seeds at least a 45% chance of playing in the Garden. The favorite to win it all? Ohio State (19.9%), followed by Arizona State (14.8%), Syracuse (10.8%), and Virginia Tech (10.5%). The complete breakdown is here.

The NCAA gets the same treatment later tonight or tomorrow.