Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Tournament Overview: Pac-10

I wonder if N.C. State fans have started to reassess their position on Herb Sendek yet. After just three seasons in the desert, his Sun Devils run the fourth-most efficient offense in the nation and have a top-25 defense. Meanwhile, Sidney Lowe's Wolfpack will be wearing their red uniforms in the ACC Tournament's opening round for the third year in a row.

In tonight's first game, TAPE likes Stanford over Oregon State by 6½ points (68.9 to 62.4 in 61.2 possessions). Both of these teams have overachieved this season, but while Craig Robinson has been doing it mostly with smoke and Mirrors, Johnny Dawkins' Stanford team actually comes pretty close to being a good team.

After the overachievers clear the deck, Oregon takes on Washington State in a battle of underachieving teams. The Cougars looked like a serious contender for the conference title in December, but they've been treading water in a diluted Pac-10 this year. Still, they're 10¼-point favorites against the Ducks (65.8 to 55.5 in 61.3 possessions).

Here's the Pac-10 table of probabilities:

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