NCAA Tournament Preview: Second-Round Saturday

Villanova 73.1 – 72.5 UCLA (67.7 possessions), 1:00 in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
UCLA	25.8	55.7	8.6	20.4	12.3	17.0	10.3	30.3	21.8	15.3	14.6	7.5	2.5	72.5	.540	.319	.215	.222
Villanova	24.1	51.0	5.9	15.4	19.0	25.4	10.0	32.3	17.7	13.4	14.8	6.9	2.6	73.1	.531	.331	.219	.373

UCLA would be 3¾-point TAPE favorites at a neutral site. The NCAA needs to address how they determine what is or is not a home site. A 50- or 75-mile radius from campus would be preferable, but that would lock Duke or Carolina (and all of their ticket sales) out whenever the RBC Center is a site, and that's probably more important than fairness for the NCAA.

Memphis 71.7 – 61.2 Maryland (68.7 possessions), 3:20 in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Maryland	21.9	59.8	4.1	14.2	13.3	17.5	12.9	38.8	18.4	11.8	13.9	6.7	3.1	61.2	.400	.323	.202	.223
Memphis	26.1	62.0	6.8	21.8	12.7	18.4	15.7	39.9	18.0	13.4	14.1	7.9	6.7	71.7	.476	.404	.205	.205

I love it when one of the pre-tournament favorites has trouble putting away their playing-out-of-their-minds first round opponents and then everyone starts to wonder if maybe they aren't so good after all. Here's a clue, folks: a single game doesn't mean anything. Memphis will be fine.

Six more games after the jump.

Connecticut 73.8 – 64.1 Texas A&M (66.5 possessions), 3:30 in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Texas A&M	23.8	61.2	5.6	16.7	10.9	15.9	13.1	34.9	21.0	11.2	11.3	4.5	4.4	64.1	.435	.328	.170	.178
Connecticut	26.7	57.5	4.3	11.6	16.1	23.9	12.8	39.9	17.2	14.7	11.0	5.6	8.5	73.8	.501	.366	.165	.280

After TAPE darlings Utah and BYU were each handled easily in their first round games by lousy BCS League teams, I'm wondering if the Mountain West wasn't systemically overvalued somehow. My hunch is that with more bad BCS teams than usual (especially concetrated in the SEC) and no great teams anywhere to be found, the better high-major teams and leagues were overvalued a little bit.

Purdue 72.5 – 72.1 Washington (73.9 possessions), 5:30 in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Purdue	25.8	62.5	5.8	18.5	15.1	21.7	11.4	40.8	21.7	13.6	12.8	7.8	4.7	72.5	.459	.283	.173	.242
Washington	25.4	62.3	3.5	10.9	17.8	25.3	17.6	40.2	20.0	12.2	17.5	6.3	2.6	72.1	.436	.431	.237	.286

Washington is the best team in the nation in TAPE-adjusted offensive rebounding percentage, and that's the only thing keeping Purdue from being an overwhelming favorite in this matchup.

North Carolina 85.4 – 74.3 LSU (73.9 possessions), 5:45 in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
LSU	28.0	67.6	6.7	18.6	11.6	16.1	13.9	37.8	21.4	15.2	13.2	8.5	7.2	74.3	.464	.332	.178	.171
North Carolina	30.5	65.3	5.7	15.4	18.8	24.6	14.6	41.8	17.3	15.1	12.2	7.0	4.1	85.4	.510	.386	.165	.287

Running with Tar Heels is more dangerous than running with scissors.

Oklahoma 73.8 – 68.3 Michigan (65.7 possessions), 5:45 in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Michigan	23.6	59.7	9.8	29.7	11.4	15.0	10.6	30.9	19.9	15.3	9.7	6.4	1.7	68.3	.477	.280	.147	.191
Oklahoma	26.6	54.0	5.9	18.5	14.7	21.6	11.5	37.8	16.8	14.7	13.4	5.3	3.8	73.8	.548	.373	.204	.272

Despite their conference record, TAPE has placed Oklahoma behind both Kansas and Missouri all season. It's hard to say the Sooners are over-seeded, but they are less than two possessions better than a very ordinary Michigan team.

Gonzaga 80.9 – 66.6 Western Kentucky (67.8 possessions), 8:00 in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
West. Kentucky	22.9	59.6	9.3	25.4	11.5	16.5	13.6	31.6	18.4	11.4	14.1	4.9	2.5	66.6	.462	.347	.209	.194
Gonzaga	30.1	59.1	7.6	18.8	13.1	18.3	10.0	39.1	17.5	16.4	10.7	7.4	3.4	80.9	.573	.315	.158	.221

I'm convinced that the Western Kentucky basketball team, like the broadcasting tandem of Ian Eagle and Jim Spanarkel, is frozen in carbonite for 51 weeks out of the year, only to be reanimated each March for a too-brief moment of relevance.

Duke 72.9 – 66.6 Texas (67.1 possessions), 8:15 in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Texas	25.7	59.4	3.9	11.5	11.4	16.9	14.0	37.0	21.1	10.1	14.4	5.4	6.0	66.6	.465	.382	.214	.191
Duke	24.4	57.9	6.5	18.6	17.5	24.0	14.3	36.7	17.7	11.4	12.3	7.6	3.7	72.9	.478	.387	.183	.303

The Dexter Pittman-Lance Thomas battle for position in the low post should be epic.