NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

Can't see the table? Click here.

I've discovered that the total rebounds and effective field goal numbers in each of the previous three preview posts were incorrect due to formula errors in the game modeler (made three-pointers were multiplied by 1.5 instead of 0.5 in the EFG formula, and the total rebounds number reported was actually the number of defensive rebounding opportunities). I've fixed the errors for this post, and I'll be correcting the previous posts as well.

First-round matchups and the full table of probabilities are after the jump.

Kansas 80.0 – 70.2 North Dakota State (69.9 possessions), 12:30 Friday in Minneapolis.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
North Dakota St.	24	59.4	7.7	19.9	14.5	19.6	10.7	31.5	19.5	13.3	12.1	7	2.5	70.2	.469	.281	.173	.244
Kansas	29.9	58.4	5.2	13.2	15.1	20.8	10.5	37.8	19	15.6	12.9	7.1	5.7	80	.556	.335	.185	.258

When you make the NCAA Tournament in your first season of Division I eligibility does that augur well for things to come, or is it a too-early peak that can only be followed by disappointment and heartache. Fans of the North Dakota State Bison will find out soon enough.

West Virginia 67.7 – 56.0 Dayton (64.4 possessions), 3:00 Friday in Minneapolis.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Dayton	19.7	51.1	3.6	13.2	13	20.1	12.1	37.8	20.1	10.4	16	5.7	3.1	56	.420	.344	.248	.254
West Virginia	22.8	56.1	6.8	21.3	15.3	21.9	14.7	34.3	19.2	14.4	12.6	5.2	5.3	67.7	.467	.398	.196	.273

TAPE loves the Mountaineers. They don’t excel at any single thing, but they’re not deficient in any facet of the game, and they don’t lose to teams  they shouldn’t lose to.

Louisville 76.5 – Morehead State 55.4 (68.3 possessions), 7:00 Friday in Dayton

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Morehead St.	19.2	53.6	3.6	13.1	13.5	18.6	12.4	35.8	20.5	8.9	18.6	6.2	3.1	55.4	.391	.336	.272	.251
Louisville	26.5	56.8	9	22.6	14.6	22.7	11.3	35.8	18.5	17.5	12.1	10	8.3	76.5	.545	.325	.178	.257

Kenneth Faried’s defensive rebounding prowess will be of little help when the Cardinals are making almost half of their field goal attempts.

Utah 72.4 – Arizona 66.9 (64.2 possessions), 7:00 Friday in Miami.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Arizona	24.3	56.1	5	12.7	13.4	18.4	10.1	31.6	17.4	12	9.9	6.8	1.9	66.9	.477	.294	.154	.239
Utah	24.9	53	9.7	24.8	12.9	16.4	8.5	32.8	18.4	16.1	12.2	4.1	3.4	72.4	.562	.284	.190	.244

Those picking Arizona to knock off the Utes are ignoring two very important facts: First, the Mountain West was a very good conference this year, and second—and much more important—Arizona is almost completly incapable of playing defense.

Southern California 70.7 – 65.2 Boston College (64.9 possessions), 7:20 Friday in Minneapolis.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
USC	25.8	55.7	3.3	10.5	15.8	23.7	14.3	37.5	18.7	11.5	12.5	7	6.3	70.7	.493	.414	.193	.283
Boston Coll.	22.5	56.9	6.1	20	13.9	19	13.9	34	21	11.9	13	5.6	3.1	65.2	.450	.374	.201	.245

Maybe the winner will make the front page of their hometown paper’s sports section, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Wake Forest 73.3 – 64.9 Cleveland State (71.6 possessions), 9:45 Friday in Miami.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Cleveland St.	23.6	61.4	4.9	18.8	12.7	18.2	11.9	31.9	22.2	11.9	13.9	10	2.7	64.9	.425	.293	.194	.208
Wake Forest	25.8	53.2	3	9.9	18.6	26.3	11.6	40.5	18.3	11.7	17.9	8.1	7.1	73.3	.514	.370	.250	.349

The first team to run a credible zone at Wake will bounce the Deacons from the tournament.

Ohio State 75.3 – 69.0 Siena (68.6 possessions), 9:45 Friday in Dayton.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Siena	26.6	61.7	6.4	19.0	9.5	14.3	12.7	33.4	17.4	14.8	13.4	7.4	2.3	69.0	.482	.337	.195	.154
Ohio St.	28.3	55.6	7.4	18.8	11.2	16.3	9.1	34.0	16.4	16.8	15.0	6.4	6.3	75.3	.576	.304	.218	.201

Congratulations, Siena, you've just won the Metro-Atlantic championship! Your prize is a first round game 75 miles from your opponent's campus against a coach who's never lost a first round NCAA Tournament game.

Michigan State 75.0 – 62.4 Robert Morris (67.9 possessions), 10:00 Friday in Minneapolis.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Robert Morris	21.7	50.5	6.2	17.8	12.7	18.1	8.0	27.9	22.4	11.9	17.1	6.7	2.6	62.4	.492	.255	.252	.252
Michigan St.	25.6	54.6	5.2	13.8	18.5	26.7	13.6	37.2	18.3	16.8	14.4	7.5	2.6	75.0	.517	.407	.212	.338

Here's your full table of TAPE-generated matchup probabilities: