NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

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Once again, TAPE doesn’t give any team more than a 25% chance of reaching the Final Four. It’s not quite pick-a-name-out-of-a-hat, but it’s hard to imagine a more wide-open Tournament than the one that gets underway tomorrow.

First-round matchups and the full table of probabilities are after the jump.

Texas 64.2 – 63.4 Minnesota (65.1 possessions), 7:00 Thursday in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Minnesota	22.1	55.0	5.3	16.4	14.0	19.3	13.3	35.8	19.6	11.9	14.6	8.3	6.5	63.4	.449	.374	.224	.254
Texas	22.6	56.8	4.8	15.3	14.1	20.9	15.4	37.7	18.8	12.2	13.9	8.2	5.5	64.2	.441	.406	.214	.248

For such a close matchup, there’s really not a whole lot to say about this one. One thing’s for certain: this will not be an aesthetically pleasing basketball game.

Villanova 71.6 – 57.8 American (62.6 possessions), 7:20 Thursday in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
American	20.3	48.6	8.4	22.0	8.7	13.5	7.8	28.1	21.8	11.8	15.5	4.2	1.8	57.8	.506	.254	.248	.180
Villanova	23.2	50.7	6.3	16.7	18.9	25.4	10.7	33.6	16.0	13.0	10.6	8.2	3.9	71.6	.519	.346	.169	.372

This and any potential second-round matchup with UCLA or VCU are being treated as a home game for Villanova. The arena is less than 20 miles from campus, and the Wildcats played three true home games there during the regular season (against Louisville, Syracuse, and Georgetown). On a neutral floor, Villanova would be favored 69.4 to 59.7.

Duke 82.3 – 60.5 Binghamton (69.3 possessions), 9:30 Thursday in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Binghamton	22.1	55.4	4.7	14.1	11.6	16.9	10.7	30.8	24.7	8.7	16.9	5.6	3.5	60.5	.441	.296	.244	.209
Duke	26.3	56.8	6.7	19.0	23.0	31.5	15.0	40.4	17.7	14.5	12.5	9.1	4.9	82.3	.522	.427	.180	.404

Many will claim that the Greensboro site constitutes a home court for Duke and North Carolina, but only one of the three criteria I use to decide whether to apply home court advantage—familiarity with the arena, crowd support, and sleeping in one’s own bed—are true in this case. (Remarkably, all three boxes are checked for ‘Nova in Philly). So while there is definitely some advantage for the Heels and the Devils in Greensboro, it’s still treated as a neutral site for modeling purposes.

UCLA 76.2 – 66.0 VCU (66.7 possessions), 10:00 Thursday in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
VCU	24.0	52.6	5.9	15.5	12.1	17.2	9.1	28.6	19.9	11.5	15.4	6.3	3.1	66.0	.512	.289	.230	.230
UCLA	27.1	56.2	6.3	15.0	15.7	21.6	12.6	34.9	17.8	15.2	13.2	7.7	3.0	76.2	.539	.391	.199	.278

VCU is the trendy pick to spring an upset in the Battle of the Abbreviations, but TAPE sees the Bruins’ offense as being too much for the Rams to handle.

Oklahoma State 81.5 – 79.3 Tennessee (73.5 possessions), 12:30 Friday in Dayton.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Tennessee	28.5	60.3	6.4	20.6	15.9	23.8	12.1	38.2	20.9	14.8	14.3	5.4	3.2	79.3	.526	.333	.194	.263
Oklahoma St.	26.8	58.7	10.4	27.4	17.4	23.5	8.9	33.1	21.0	12.9	12.6	6.8	1.8	81.5	.546	.255	.172	.297

Two things will be in abundance in this game: orange and offense.

Pittsburgh 85.5 – 66.1 East Tennessee State (69.9 possessions), 3:00 Friday in Dayton.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
E. Tennessee St.	24.0	58.8	5.7	17.6	12.3	17.2	10.0	30.3	19.3	10.4	13.4	5.6	2.5	66.1	.458	.268	.192	.209
Pittsburgh	31.5	63.2	8.7	23.4	13.8	20.4	14.7	42.0	17.8	19.3	12.5	7.8	3.4	85.5	.567	.421	.178	.218

At almost 9%, ETSU is the most likely of this year’s 16 seeds to pull the unprecedented one-seed upset.

Xavier 73.6 – 63.8 Portland State (66.6 possessions), 7:30 Friday in Boise.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Portland St.	23.1	57.6	8.5	23.6	9.1	13.7	10.5	29.9	20.6	13.7	13.4	7.2	3.8	63.8	.475	.287	.201	.159
Xavier	25.9	53.8	6.3	16.8	15.5	23.0	12.4	38.6	16.1	14.3	14.6	6.4	4.3	73.6	.540	.390	.219	.288

Maybe I’m just a sucker for punny Mascot names, but I think the Vikings might keep this one closer than expected.

Wisconsin 62.1 – 59.5 Florida State (60.5 possessions), 10:00 Friday in Boise.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Wisconsin	20.3	51.7	6.9	19.9	14.6	20.3	11.3	31.7	18.4	9.7	10.4	5.4	2.1	62.1	.459	.328	.173	.283
Florida St.	20.9	47.4	4.5	14.2	13.2	18.4	8.7	31.8	19.3	9.1	13.5	5.2	3.9	59.5	.488	.300	.222	.279

This is an 8/9 game masquerading as a 5/12. If this game traded places with the BYU-A&M contest the tournament would make much more sense.

Here's your full table of TAPE-generated matchup probabilities: