NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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It always seems silly to me when teams make a big deal about being a 2 seed instead of a 1. With protected seeds and the pod system, no 2 seed is ever going to be forced to play the opening rounds far from home, and while the 15 seeds are generally a good bit stronger than the 16’s, if you consider yourself one of the four best teams in the country it still shouldn’t be a problem.

First-round matchups and the full table of probabilities are after the jump.

Memphis 76.9 – 60.5 CSU Northridge (73.8 possessions), 12:30 Thursday in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
CSU Northridge	21.2	57.8	5.2	16.8	12.9	18.6	13.0	36.3	22.5	10.6	20.4	8.0	1.9	60.5	.412	.330	.276	.222
Memphis	25.9	59.6	6.4	21.6	18.7	27.0	14.8	41.3	18.5	14.4	16.3	10.7	6.0	76.9	.489	.389	.221	.314

With a predicted 37 turnovers between the two teams, this game will be a sloppy start to Thursday’s action in Kansas City. The Matadors’ threesome of Kenny Daniels, Tremaine Townsend, and Josh Jenkins rate as the second-, third-, and fourth-best players in the Big West.

BYU 75.9 – 65.8 Texas A&M (67.5 possessions), 12:30 Thursday in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Texas A&M	22.8	55.6	5.3	17.4	14.9	21.7	11.3	34.7	18.6	10.4	13.1	4.3	3.3	65.8	.458	.309	.193	.269
BYU	27.6	57.0	6.9	16.9	13.8	18.8	8.5	33.7	20.0	16.2	10.7	6.4	3.8	75.9	.545	.266	.158	.242

This is a 5/12 game that the committee decided to call an 8/9 game for some reason.>

Purdue 68.3 – 60.5 Northern Iowa (62.8 possessions), 2:30 Thursday in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Northern Iowa	20.1	50.0	5.3	16.7	15.0	20.0	9.3	33.5	17.2	10.9	12.7	3.3	1.8	60.5	.455	.286	.202	.300
Purdue	24.8	54.8	7.5	19.8	11.2	16.0	8.3	31.5	19.2	15.1	9.0	5.6	4.2	68.3	.521	.255	.144	.204

UNI’s Lucas O’Rear is more than just a big slow white guy with a funny name and a bright-green clover tattoo. The Northern Iowa sixth man was also PAPER’s best player in the Missouri Valley Conference.

California 75.9 – 70.1 Maryland (68.3 possessions), 3:00 Thursday in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Maryland	26.4	62.5	4.8	14.9	12.5	16.3	12.3	34.1	18.2	13.5	11.1	5.4	4.3	70.1	.461	.324	.163	.200
California	27.7	59.4	6.9	16.1	13.5	17.9	12.0	37.7	17.4	15.7	13.1	4.4	2.4	75.9	.526	.355	.192	.227

I’m putting the over/under on Greivis Vasquez field goal attempts at 25 in this one. If he scores more than a point per shot the Terps win.

Connecticut 87.7 – 63.7 Chattanooga (71.8 possessions), 3:00 Thursday in Philadelphia.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Chattanooga	23.0	63.6	7.7	24.8	10.1	15.4	12.5	33.7	22.0	11.3	13.7	4.8	2.2	63.7	.421	.290	.191	.158
Connecticut	31.2	62.1	7.7	19.4	17.5	25.8	14.0	44.7	16.9	19.8	11.9	7.3	9.5	87.7	.565	.398	.166	.282

Chattanooga should have been in the play-in game instead of Alabama State.

Washington 79.5 – 72.7 Mississippi State (75.3 possessions), 5:00 Thursday in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Mississippi St.	24.7	60.0	7.0	21.7	16.3	23.3	11.3	36.1	21.7	10.9	15.6	7.0	6.9	72.7	.469	.289	.208	.272
Washington	28.6	70.0	4.5	13.2	17.7	25.2	20.4	48.2	20.8	10.5	14.3	7.9	2.1	79.5	.441	.452	.190	.253

My pick of the Bulldogs to win the SEC Tournament was based on two things: The SEC is horrible, and Mississippi State had two of the five best players in the tournament. Varnado and Turner still might be the two best players in the game against Washington, but the Huskies are a much better team than anyone the Bulldogs faced in Tampa.

Marquette 72.1 – 71.6 Utah State (63.6 possessions), 12:30 Friday in Boise.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Utah St.	25.8	51.4	6.9	16.9	13.0	17.5	9.0	32.7	19.4	16.9	13.4	4.0	2.2	71.6	.570	.323	.211	.253
Marquette	25.2	57.0	7.0	19.0	14.7	20.6	11.3	30.3	18.0	15.0	8.5	8.1	2.8	72.1	.503	.324	.133	.257

Here’s your best chance for a first round upset in the West. Utah State is a very good team, and while Marquette handled themselves credibly in the Big East Tournament without Dominic James, they’re not going to be the same team without him (no adjustment to the TAPE simulation has been made to account for James’ absence). Also, I know TV drives everything, but asking college-age kids to play a basketball game—or do anything, really—at 10:30 AM local time is more than just a little bit silly.

Missouri 82.0 – 69.4 Cornell (71.9 possessions), 3:00 Friday in Boise.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Cornell	24.4	55.4	6.3	17.7	14.3	19.4	11.6	36.1	20.1	13.1	19.3	6.1	2.4	69.4	.498	.345	.268	.258
Missouri	30.7	63.9	6.3	18.5	14.3	21.8	12.6	34.7	18.9	17.5	10.9	10.7	4.2	82.0	.529	.340	.152	.224

I think it’s safe to say that Cornell hasn’t faced anything like Missouri’s pressure defense this season. TAPE expects the Big Red’s turnover total to be almost double that of the Tigers.

Here's your full table of TAPE-generated matchup probabilities: