NCAA Tournament Preview: South Region

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The winner of the potential Sweet Sixteen matchup between North Carolina and Gonzaga is the clear favorite to represent the South region in Detroit. Gonzaga would be a slight TAPE favorite in that game by about 1½ points, but the Tar Heels have a clearer path to that matchup.

First-round matchups and the full table of probabilities are after the jump.

Butler 66.6 – 63.9 LSU (63.3 possessions), Noon Thursday in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Butler	22.3	52.3	6.9	20.1	15.2	20.9	9.8	33.1	18.0	10.2	11.0	5.5	2.1	66.6	.492	.296	.174	.291
LSU	22.9	55.8	5.5	16.2	12.6	17.5	12.1	35.3	19.6	12.2	11.7	6.4	5.9	63.9	.460	.341	.185	.226

As one would expect from an 8/9 matchup, these two teams are fairly evenly matched, although the Bulldogs do everything just a little bit better than the Tigers with the exception of rebounding.

North Carolina 93.7 – 69.4 Radford (76.9 possessions), 2:30 Thursday in Greensboro.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Radford	25.5	62.6	5.5	15.7	13.0	19.2	11.9	36.6	21.6	12.1	17.6	5.8	4.6	69.4	.451	.296	.229	.208
North Carolina	33.4	70.2	7.8	20.4	19.1	25.1	15.2	43.6	18.8	20.9	10.6	9.6	4.3	93.7	.531	.381	.138	.272

This is what domination looks like. Surprisingly, CBS seems to have wised up to the fact that 1/16 games are generally unwatchable and three of them will be played in the little-watched afternoon slots, leaving the snoozers out of primetime.

Clemson 75.2 – Michigan 71.7 (67.1 possessions), 7:00 Thursday in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Michigan	25.0	57.7	9.2	25.8	12.5	16.5	10.6	30.5	18.2	16.5	12.6	7.9	2.4	71.7	.513	.307	.187	.216
Clemson	28.0	58.4	6.9	19.6	12.3	18.1	13.4	37.5	17.5	15.2	14.3	6.8	4.7	75.2	.538	.403	.212	.210

Michigan generally does a great job of taking care of the ball—they're 6th-best in the nation with an adjusted offensive turnover rate of 16.4%—but TAPE predicts that more than 21% of the Wolverines' possessions will end in turnovers against Clemson's pressure defense.

Gonzaga 73.9 – 60.1 Akron (67.4 possessions), 7:30 Thursday in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Akron	20.4	58.1	8.2	25.1	10.9	15.3	12.0	32.1	21.4	9.8	14.1	6.5	1.7	60.1	.422	.303	.210	.188
Gonzaga	25.2	52.9	6.0	16.9	17.5	24.7	11.5	39.2	16.9	12.3	14.5	8.2	3.9	73.9	.533	.364	.215	.330

Akron fouls the heck out of their opponents, committing a personal foul once every 3.2 possessions. Only 19 teams in all of Division I foul with greater frequency than do the Zips. Even against a relatively pedestrian free-throw shooting team like Gonzaga (.7084 team FT%, 104th-best in D-I) that's not a recipe for success.

Oklahoma 76.2 – 61.4 Morgan State (67.7 possessions), 9:30 Thursday in Kansas City.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Morgan St.	22.6	62.7	5.3	16.3	11.0	17.0	15.1	34.5	22.6	9.5	12.3	6.2	1.8	61.4	.402	.349	.182	.175
Oklahoma	26.1	52.8	5.5	16.2	18.4	27.0	11.8	40.0	17.7	12.5	14.2	7.2	6.1	76.2	.547	.379	.209	.349

TAPE says the Sooners will make three and a half more shots than Morgan State on almost 10 fewer attempts.

Illinois 69.4 – 60.6 Western Kentucky (63.2 possessions), 10:00 Thursday in Portland.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
West. Kentucky	22.4	56.7	6.3	20.4	9.5	13.5	13.1	34.8	15.9	11.2	13.6	4.9	2.0	60.6	.450	.361	.215	.168
Illinois	27.0	56.1	6.1	16.7	9.3	13.3	9.3	32.5	16.0	19.2	10.9	5.9	2.5	69.4	.535	.301	.173	.165

Illinois could be in trouble if the Hilltoppers get hot from outside. That's been known to happen in March.

Syracuse 70.4 – 60.9 Stephen F. Austin (67.1 possessions), Noon Friday in Miami.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Stephen F. Austin	23.3	61.1	6.1	23.1	8.3	12.4	11.1	32.2	21.2	13.1	11.8	6.2	2.2	60.9	.431	.280	.176	.135
Syracuse	25.3	52.2	4.4	14.1	15.3	24.2	10.5	39.2	15.5	13.1	14.2	6.8	5.6	70.4	.527	.333	.212	.293

The theme of free throw imbalance continues. The 'Cuse should get to the stripe twice as many times as the Lumberjacks.

Arizona State 67.0 – 57.8 Temple (59.1 possessions), 2:30 Friday in Miami.

	FGM	FGA	3GM	3GA	FTM	FTA	OR	REB	PF	A	TO	S	B	PTS	EFG	OR%	TO%	T:G
Temple	20.6	51.8	7.5	23.5	9.1	12.8	9.7	30.4	17.8	13.1	11.1	4.9	2.6	57.8	.470	.293	.188	.175
Arizona St.	23.1	49.9	8.1	21.7	12.6	17.2	8.4	31.7	15.7	15.5	9.7	6.5	1.2	67.0	.546	.288	.164	.253

Herb Sendek's offense shouldn't have much trouble scoring against the Owls. The slow pace could make this game look closer than it actually is.

Here's your full table of TAPE-generated matchup probabilities: