NCAA First Round Preview: Midwest Region

7:10 Thursday, Oklahoma City				60.3 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9 Northern Iowa	46.8%	59.4	45.5	18.4	27.2	33.3
8 UNLV	53.2%	60.3	50.0	17.6	25.6	20.5

I hate 8-9 games. They're always games between evenly-matched teams, but they hardly ever turn out to be memorable contests. Usually one or both teams just completely fails to show up, probably because they know that even if they win they'll run into a buzzsaw in the second round.

7:25 Thursday, Providence				68.1 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14 Ohio	18.2%	65.3	44.3	17.7	26.9	28.8
3 Georgetown	81.8%	76.6	57.0	20.7	36.6	27.6

Ohio's DJ Cooper was the best player in the Mid-American Conference and the most valuable freshman in America, according to PAPER.

9:40 Thursday, Oklahoma City				70.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16 Lehigh	2.1%	62.3	41.3	18.1	25.5	22.8
1 Kansas	97.9%	88.2	59.2	15.2	45.5	25.0

Other games in this time slot include Wake Forest-Texas, Montana-New Mexico, and San Diego State-Tennessee.

9:55 Thursday, Providence				65.8 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11 San Diego St.	46.7%	64.8	48.1	24.3	39.4	29.3
6 Tennessee	53.3%	65.8	47.8	18.3	34.9	20.9

If San Diego State can take care of the ball against Tennessee's press--no easy task, mind you--they should win this game. The Aztecs, led by freshman Kawhi Leonard, are second-best in the country in adjusted offensive rebounding rate.

7:15 Friday, Milwaukee				69.3 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10 Georgia Tech	52.2%	70.8	52.1	21.7	31.5	25.3
7 Oklahoma St.	47.8%	70.1	48.2	18.0	31.0	26.9

Turnovers will be the story in this game as well. Mike Gminski said it best during the ACC Tournament: "Georgia Tech just manufactures turnovers for themselves sometimes."

7:20 Friday, Spokane				71.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12 New Mexico St.	17.3%	71.4	49.9	18.8	24.9	26.4
5 Michigan St.	82.7%	83.7	54.3	18.1	57.4	21.2

That's not a misprint. The Spartans should rebound nearly 60% of their own misses against New Mexico State.

9:45 Friday, Milwaukee				65.6 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15 UCSB	7.1%	57.3	47.9	26.2	23.4	27.2
2 Ohio St.	92.9%	75.0	56.5	16.6	32.7	28.5

What's the difference between a 1 seed and a 2 seed? Not much for Ohio State. While most years there's a dropoff between the 15 and 16 seeds, there were so many upsets in the single-bid league tournaments this year that all 7 of the 9 teams at the bottom of the S-curve are pretty similar (Wofford and Arkansas-Pine Bluff are a fair measure worse than the others).

9:50 Friday, Spokane				74.7 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13 Houston	13.8%	75.2	42.8	12.4	32.3	19.1
4 Maryland	86.2%	89.9	56.4	18.2	49.1	29.9

Houston takes care of the ball better than any team in the country. Unfortunately for the Cougars, that's about the only thing they do well.