NCAA First Round Preview: West Region

12:20 Thursday, Oklahoma City				69.7 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
10 Florida	18.6%	69.2	47.4	18.2	29.0	24.0
7 BYU	81.4%	80.5	54.2	15.8	34.6	27.2

BYU is criminally underseeded (honestly, how can you seed New Mexico, who won the two meetings with the Cougars by a total of six points, four lines higher?), but they get the functional equivalent of a 13-seed opponent in Florida.

2:30 Thursday, San Jose				68.7 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
13 Murray St.	48.5%	72.9	49.6	20.5	37.7	29.1
4 Vanderbilt	51.5%	73.3	52.0	21.6	36.8	35.4

Murray State played a laughably weak (#290 nationally) schedule this year, but they romped through it with little difficulty. The Racers' only game against a BCS opponent was their season opener at California, a game they lost by only 5 points.

2:50 Thursday, Oklahoma City				71.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
15 North Texas	7.5%	66.1	45.0	24.6	30.4	43.7
2 Kansas St.	92.5%	83.9	53.0	16.3	58.1	33.8

North Texas are the champions of the Sun Belt Conference, and the sun belt could sure use a diet. It would take 34 hours to drive from the University of Denver to Florida International University.

4:55 Thursday, San Jose				66.2 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
12 UTEP	42.4%	64.9	50.7	19.8	22.7	25.1
5 Butler	57.6%	67.1	47.0	19.6	32.5	42.5

If the officials decide to swallow their whistles, Butler could be in trouble. The model has the Bulldogs taking 28 free throws in this game, but the combination of unfamiliar officials and greater reluctance on the officials' part to call fouls in the postseason could lead to frustration for Brad Stevens' team.

12:25 Friday, Milwaukee				69.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
11 Minnesota	50.5%	74.0	50.9	16.4	28.9	24.0
6 Xavier	49.5%	73.8	50.8	19.8	38.4	29.6

The 6-11 games project to be closer in three of the four regions than the corresponding 8-9 matchups. Was the committee just picking random names out of a hat from positions 10-45 on the S-curve?

2:55 Friday, Milwaukee				63.3 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
14 Oakland	16.0%	61.7	42.9	16.7	32.8	24.8
3 Pittsburgh	84.0%	73.4	53.6	16.0	46.6	27.4

Pitt should have no problem with Oakland, but the Panthers will be underdogs in the second round to either Xavier or Minnesota.

7:10 Friday, Buffalo				68.4 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
9 Florida St.	61.8%	69.3	50.0	20.1	31.6	24.1
8 Gonzaga	38.2%	65.6	47.9	23.1	32.8	32.5

Gonzaga is a fashionable pick to upset Syracuse in the second round, but few people seem to have noticed that Gonzaga just isn't a very good team this year. If TAPE was building the tournament the Zags would have been NIT-bound. Florida State has the nation's best defense, and while the Seminoles tend to bog down in a halfcourt game, the Zags aren't likely to be able to force them into one.

9:40 Friday, Buffalo				71.5 possessions
Team	WIN%	PTS	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTM:FGA
16 Vermont	6.5%	64.5	43.2	23.1	33.4	23.6
1 Syracuse	93.5%	83.7	57.3	19.9	45.9	29.3

Other games in the late Friday time slot include UCSB-Ohio State, Houston-Maryland, and Louisville-California.